JP Morgan, BNP Paribas cut 2014 GDP growth forecast for Poland, Merrill Lynch upholds it

By bne IntelliNews August 19, 2014

After last week's publication of flash estimate of Poland's GDP growth for Q2, (which were in line in consensus of expectations at 3.2% y/y), some analysts have lowered their full-year growth estimates. JP Morgan chase noted that domestic demand slowed down in Q2, which it sees as a proof that the lack of monetary policy easing is holding back economic rebound in the country.

Indeed, JP Morgan lowered its forecast of Poland's 2014 GDP growth to 3.0% from 3.2%. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas lowered its forecasts to 3.0% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015 from 3.3% expected earlier for both years.

At the same time, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has upheld its GDP growth forecast at 3.2%, though it stressed that Poland is the country most exposed to the risk of Russian sanctions.

Recently Fitch Ratings said it forecasts Poland GDP growth of 3.4% in 2014, despite a soft patch in Q2. The agency projects a mild acceleration in growth in 2015-2016, as the economic performance of Poland's key EU trading partners improves and fiscal drag gradually recedes.

Poland's ministry of finance has admitted that it might revise the 2015 GDP growth forecast of 3.8%, but upheld this year's projection of 3.3%. 

Related Articles

RBI doubles net profit y/y in Q1 as Russian business recovers

Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), the second largest bank operating across Central and Eastern Europe by assets, reported that net profit almost doubled year-on-year to €220mn in the first ... more

Poland shrugs off EU bid to toughen rule of law probe

The EU’s General Affairs Council urged Poland on May 16 to talk with the European Commission about its alleged violations of the rule of law, as Brussels continued to hold back from imposing ... more

Moody’s raises outlook on Poland to stable

Moody’s Investor Service affirmed Poland’s sovereign credit rating at 'A2' on May 12, and raised the outlook on the sovereign to stable. The improvement of the outlook comes on the back of ... more

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:
  • Full access to the bne content daily news and features on the website
  • Newsletters direct to your mailbox
  • Print and digital subscription to the monthly bne magazine
  • Digital subscription to the weekly bne newspaper

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Register for free to read bne IntelliNews Magazine. You'll receive a free digital subscription.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

IntelliNews Pro offers daily news updates delivered to your inbox and in-depth data reports.
Get the emerging markets newswire that financial professionals trust.

"No day starts for my team without IntelliNews Pro" — UBS

Thank-you for requesting an IntelliNews Pro trial. Our team will be in contact with you shortly.

Dismiss