JP Morgan, BNP Paribas cut 2014 GDP growth forecast for Poland, Merrill Lynch upholds it

By bne IntelliNews August 19, 2014

After last week's publication of flash estimate of Poland's GDP growth for Q2, (which were in line in consensus of expectations at 3.2% y/y), some analysts have lowered their full-year growth estimates. JP Morgan chase noted that domestic demand slowed down in Q2, which it sees as a proof that the lack of monetary policy easing is holding back economic rebound in the country.

Indeed, JP Morgan lowered its forecast of Poland's 2014 GDP growth to 3.0% from 3.2%. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas lowered its forecasts to 3.0% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015 from 3.3% expected earlier for both years.

At the same time, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has upheld its GDP growth forecast at 3.2%, though it stressed that Poland is the country most exposed to the risk of Russian sanctions.

Recently Fitch Ratings said it forecasts Poland GDP growth of 3.4% in 2014, despite a soft patch in Q2. The agency projects a mild acceleration in growth in 2015-2016, as the economic performance of Poland's key EU trading partners improves and fiscal drag gradually recedes.

Poland's ministry of finance has admitted that it might revise the 2015 GDP growth forecast of 3.8%, but upheld this year's projection of 3.3%. 

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