JP Morgan, BNP Paribas cut 2014 GDP growth forecast for Poland, Merrill Lynch upholds it

By bne IntelliNews August 19, 2014

After last week's publication of flash estimate of Poland's GDP growth for Q2, (which were in line in consensus of expectations at 3.2% y/y), some analysts have lowered their full-year growth estimates. JP Morgan chase noted that domestic demand slowed down in Q2, which it sees as a proof that the lack of monetary policy easing is holding back economic rebound in the country.

Indeed, JP Morgan lowered its forecast of Poland's 2014 GDP growth to 3.0% from 3.2%. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas lowered its forecasts to 3.0% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015 from 3.3% expected earlier for both years.

At the same time, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has upheld its GDP growth forecast at 3.2%, though it stressed that Poland is the country most exposed to the risk of Russian sanctions.

Recently Fitch Ratings said it forecasts Poland GDP growth of 3.4% in 2014, despite a soft patch in Q2. The agency projects a mild acceleration in growth in 2015-2016, as the economic performance of Poland's key EU trading partners improves and fiscal drag gradually recedes.

Poland's ministry of finance has admitted that it might revise the 2015 GDP growth forecast of 3.8%, but upheld this year's projection of 3.3%. 

Read in IntelliNews Pro
Get IntelliNews Pro

Related Articles

Protests against judiciary reform continue to rock Poland

Polish protests against the government's judiciary reforms continued for a sixth day on July 23, as crowds sought to add to pressure on President Andrzej Duda to veto the controversial bills that ... more

Czech judiciary denounces Poland's move to end separation of powers

Senior Czech judges on July 21 denounced Poland's judicial overhaul as an attack on the rule of law. With big street protests in the Czech Republic's neighbour seemingly gathering momentum – 120 ... more

Strongly profitable Czech petrochemical maker Unipetrol puts cracker explosion behind it

Unipetrol looks to have finally got over the August 2015 fire and explosion that wrecked its steam cracker, an indispensable installation in the production of ethylene feedstock needed to manufacture ... more

Most Read

  1. Wildfires hit Croatia and Montenegro’s Adriatic coast
    6 days ago
  2. Tajik president’s 23-year old daughter appointed deputy head of largest Tajik bank
    4 days ago
  3. Bosnia’s ruling coalition collapses
    2 days ago
  4. Siemens considers quitting Russia
    10 days ago
  5. FINTECH: A Russian fintech revolution is coming
    10 days ago
  1. CHINA RISING: When sleeping giants meet
    13 days ago
  2. Belarus’ retail king Euroopt goes on the road
    19 days ago
  3. STOLYPIN: Russia’s cyber-challenge cuts both ways
    21 days ago
  4. Siemens considers quitting Russia
    10 days ago
  5. COMMENT: Gazprom’s exit from Turkey is a sign of the times
    11 days ago

Selected articles from our premium news/views wire IntelliNews Pro

Login to IntelliNews Pro
Get IntelliNews Pro

Reports

Dismiss