IMF upgrades 2013-2014 GDP growth forecast for Romania

By bne IntelliNews August 1, 2013

Romania’s GDP will rise by 2% this year and by further 2.25% in 2014 under the scenario drafted by the IMF experts during their visit in Romania, the head of the Fund’s expert team visiting the country, Andrea Schaechter, said as quoted by Mediafax.

The previous forecast of the IMF was drafted in April under the World Economic Outlook and it included growth rates of 1.6% for this year and 2% for 2014. The economic recovery seems to accelerate, the IMF representative explained. Furthermore, the farmers’ crop this year is much better than in 2012, she added.

The IMF also expects Romania’s CA gap to narrow to 2-2.5% of GDP this year, the Fund’s resident representative also informed. The IMF previously expected Romania’s CA gap on the opposite - to slightly widen to 4.2% of GDP this year and 4.5% in 2014, under the April Outlook. The gap was 3.9% of GDP in 2012 down from 4.5% a year earlier. In the rolling 12 months ending May, the gap was 1.9% of this year's GDP forecast.

The consumer price inflation will enter the band set under the inflation targeting regime [2.5% +/-1pps] before the end of the year, Schaechter said.

Romania’s central bank has cut its end-year inflation forecast to 3.2% y/y under the latest Quarterly Inflation Outlook released on May 8, down from 3.5% y/y forecasted in February. The inflation will come within the targeted band at an earlier moment, probably in September, the c-bank's outlook said.

Under the latest data available, inflation accelerated marginally to 5.37% in June from 5.32% y/y in May, more or less in line with the central bank’s 5.3% y/y projection. The adjusted CORE2 inflation, however, accelerated to 2.85% y/y at the end of June from 2.65% at the end of May – 25bps above the central bank’s expectations.

Related Articles

Almaty cost of living lowest among major cities

Kazakhstan’s largest city and business centre Almaty has dropped to last place on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s bi-annual ranking of the ... more

Bucharest urges local government to borrow from banks despite warnings from IMF and EC

Romania’s local administration can co-finance the EU-funded projects from bank loans at interest rates lower than the financing cost of the Treasury, Romania’s central government reportedly ... more

IPO of Romanian telco RCS&RDS reportedly planned for May

A group of shareholders of Romanian diversified telecoms group RCS&RDS want to sell 20%-30% of the group’s shares in an IPO, Ziarul Financiar daily reported. The IPO is expected to take place ... more

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:
  • Full access to the bne content daily news and features on the website
  • Newsletters direct to your mailbox
  • Print and digital subscription to the monthly bne magazine
  • Digital subscription to the weekly bne newspaper

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Register for free to read bne IntelliNews Magazine. You'll receive a free digital subscription.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

IntelliNews Pro offers daily news updates delivered to your inbox and in-depth data reports.
Get the emerging markets newswire that financial professionals trust.

"No day starts for my team without IntelliNews Pro" — UBS

Thank-you for requesting an IntelliNews Pro trial. Our team will be in contact with you shortly.

Dismiss