IMF lifts 2015 GDP growth forecast for Turkey to 3.4% from 3%

By bne IntelliNews February 6, 2015

The Turkish economy is expected to grow by 3.4% this year, the IMF said in a note prepared by its staff for February 9-10 G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Istanbul. In its October 2014 World Economic Outlook Report, the Fund had forecast a 3% GDP growth for Turkey. The Fund, however, slashed its 2016 GDP growth forecast to 3.4% from a previous 3.7%. 

Some economies, such as Turkey, that rely heavily on private external financing will need to proactively further adjust policies, said the Fund in the note, adding that some economies (Brazil, India, South Africa, Turkey) need to maintain the course of fiscal consolidation, given large fiscal deficits and high inflation in some cases, and high external borrowing that has increased exposure to external funding risks in others.

Earlier this week, the European Commission (EC) also revised its forecasts for the Turkish economy. The EC raised its forecast to 3.4% from a previous 3.3% for 2015 and from 3.7% to 4% for 2016.

The Turkish government expects a 4% GDP growth this year and a higher growth rate of 5% next year. While acknowledging potential risks from Europe, Deputy PM Ali Babacan said in January that the government would not revise its GDP growth forecast for 2015.

GDP Growth Projections for Turkey
(%) 2014 2015
EBRD (Sep 2014) 2.9 3.0
European Commission (Feb 2015) 2.8 3.7
Turkish Government - Medium Term Programme for 2015-2017 (Oct 2014) 3.3 4.0
IMF (Feb 2014) 3.0 3.4
Turkish Central Bank survey (Dec 2014) 3.0 3.5
World Bank (Jan 2015) 3.1 3.5
OECD (Nov 2014) 3.0 3.2
Fitch (Dec 2014) 3.0 3.3
S&P (Nov 2014) 2.9 3.0
Source: ebrd, ec, dpt, imf, tcmb, oecd, world bank, s&p

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