The IMF expects Bosnia's economy to grow by 2% in 2014, the fund said in the April edition of its World Economic Outlook report, keeping its estimates unchanged from a previous forecast made in January. However, the IMF cut its 2015 growth outlook to 3.2% from 3.5% expected earlier. Growth is seen strengthening to 4.0% in 2019, the Fund also said.
The IMF's 2014 growth forecast is less optimistic than the central bank’s projection for a 2.4% GDP expansion this year. It overshoots the EBRD’s projection of 1.8% GDP growth in 2014.
According to the IMF, Bosnia’s GDP will grow below the average for Emerging and Developing Europe in 2014 (2.4%). Next year, however, the country’s GDP will expand at a faster pace than the region’s average of 2.9%.
In 2014, the average CPI inflation in Bosnia is expected to quicken to 1.1% following a 0.1% deflation in 2013. It will accelerate slightly to 1.5% in 2015. In the mid-term, the fund expects the average inflation to speed up to 2.1% in 2019 on the back of recovering economy.
Bosnia's current account gap is seen widening to 7.5% of GDP in 2014 from 5.6% a year ago. It is expected to narrow to 7.0% of GDP in 2015 and shrink further to 4.6% in 2019.
In regional comparison, the IMF projected the Albanian economy to expand by 2.1% in 2014, Serbia by 1.0% y/y, Montenegro- by 2.8% y/y while Croatia will shrink by 0.6%.
|Bosnia's main macroeconomic indicators||2013||2014||2015||2019|
|Emerging and Developing Europe||2.8||2.4||2.9||3.4|
|Current account balance,% of GDP||-5.6||-7.5||-7.0||-4.6|
|Emerging and Developing Europe||-3.9||-3.6||-3.8||-4.2|
|CPI, average, %||-0.1||1.1||1.5||2.1|
|Emerging and Developing Europe, average,%||4.1||4.0||4.1||4.0|
|Source: WEO April 2014|
Bosnian auto supplier Prevent is preparing to file a €2bn claim for damages against Volkswagen (VW) with a German court ... more
Boyko Borissov, prime minister of the current EU Council chair Bulgaria, called on April 10 on the leaders of the Western Balkan countries to preserve peace and ... more