IMF keeps Bosnia’s 2014 GDP growth forecast at 2%, lowers estimate for 2015

By bne IntelliNews April 9, 2014

The IMF expects Bosnia's economy to grow by 2% in 2014, the fund said in the April edition of its World Economic Outlook report, keeping its estimates unchanged from a previous forecast made in January. However, the IMF cut its 2015 growth outlook to 3.2% from 3.5% expected earlier. Growth is seen strengthening to 4.0% in 2019, the Fund also said.

The IMF's 2014 growth forecast is less optimistic than the central bank’s projection for a 2.4% GDP expansion this year. It overshoots the EBRD’s projection of 1.8% GDP growth in 2014.

According to the IMF, Bosnia’s GDP will grow below the average for Emerging and Developing Europe in 2014 (2.4%). Next year, however, the country’s GDP will expand at a faster pace than the region’s average of 2.9%.

In 2014, the average CPI inflation in Bosnia is expected to quicken to 1.1% following a 0.1% deflation in 2013. It will accelerate slightly to 1.5% in 2015. In the mid-term, the fund expects the average inflation to speed up to 2.1% in 2019 on the back of recovering economy.

Bosnia's current account gap is seen widening to 7.5% of GDP in 2014 from 5.6% a year ago. It is expected to narrow to 7.0% of GDP in 2015 and shrink further to 4.6% in 2019.

In regional comparison, the IMF projected the Albanian economy to expand by 2.1% in 2014, Serbia by 1.0% y/y, Montenegro- by 2.8% y/y while Croatia will shrink by 0.6%.

Bosnia's main macroeconomic indicators 2013 2014 2015 2019
Real GDP,% 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.0
Emerging and Developing Europe 2.8 2.4 2.9 3.4
Current account balance,% of GDP -5.6 -7.5 -7.0 -4.6
Emerging and Developing Europe -3.9 -3.6 -3.8 -4.2
CPI, average, % -0.1 1.1 1.5 2.1
CPI, end-year,% -0.1 1.1 1.5  
Emerging and Developing Europe, average,% 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0
Source: WEO April 2014      
Read in IntelliNews Pro
Get IntelliNews Pro

Related Articles

EIF signs guarantee agreements with 11 banks in Western Balkans, unlocking €750mn for small businesses

The European Investment Fund (EIF), part of the EIB Group, said on April 15 that it has signed guarantee agreements with 11 banks and financial intermediaries in the Western Balkans. These ... more

EIB surpasses investment milestone in the Western Balkans by investing €1.2bn in 2023

EIB Global, the financial arm of the European Investment Bank (EIB) for activities beyond the EU, set a new record by investing €1.2bn in the Western Balkans in 2023, the EIB said on February 9. ... ... more

bne IntelliNews Southeast Europe Outlook 2024

This Southeast Europe Outlook 2024 has been prepared by bne IntelliNews as part of a series of annual reviews providing updates on the geopolitical, macroeconomic and commercial state of ... more

Follow Us On

Most Read

  1. Shocking trial of ex-minister has shifted domestic violence attitudes in Kazakhstan, says brother
    6 days ago
  2. RAGOZIN: Exhausting Russia, strategies and fantasies
    5 days ago
  3. Live fish fall from the sky in Central Iran - video
    3 days ago
  4. Russia is producing weapons at a record pace, and Ukraine’s partners are trying to increase support for Kyiv
    7 days ago
  5. COMMENT: Aliyev continues to block the chance of peace in the South Caucasus
    9 days ago
  1. Albanians campaign on social media to keep bus bridge created in freak accident
    2 years ago
  2. Saudi Arabia to scale back plans for Neom city
    28 days ago
  3. Iran vs Israel: Who is better equipped for war?
    25 days ago
  4. Leading emerging markets move rapidly up World Bank’s PPP GDP and FDI confidence rankings
    29 days ago
  5. Ukraine's birth rate plummets to 300-year low as country’s population collapses
    21 days ago

Reports

Dismiss