Hungary’s GDP growth speeds up 1.8% y/y in Q3 2013 - revised data.

By bne IntelliNews December 5, 2013

Hungary’s economy expanded by 1.8% y/y in Q3 2013, speeding up from a 0.5% y/y rise in the previous quarter, the statistics office said, revising up the flash estimate of 1.7%. The seasonally and calendar adjusted data showed GDP increasing by 0.9% q/q in Q3, accelerating from a 0.4% q/q rise in Q2.

On the supply side, the agriculture output increased by 27.6% y/y in Q3, which was partly due to a low base effect. The sector contributed with 1.45pps to the GDP growth in the quarter. The construction sector increased by 7.3% y/y, on the back of better performance in both construction of buildings and the civil engineering segment. The growth in Q3 speeded up from 5.8% y/y in Q2 and contributed with 0.3pps to the third-quarter GDP. Industry expanded by 0.4% y/y in Q3, after declining in the previous five quarters. The turnaround was exclusively on account of the manufacturing, which grew 1.7% y/y in Q3, also reversing from annual drops in the previous four quarters. This improvement was on account of the manufacturing of transport equipment, whose driving force was exclusively export sales. The gross value added of services edged up 0.1% y/y in Q3, versus a 0.4% y/y drop in the previous quarter. The sector had also a positive 0.2pps contribution to GDP growth.

On the demand side, gross capital formation increased by 3.6% y/y, as investments registered a 8.2% annual growth in Q3. Gross capital formation contributed with 0.7pps to the GDP growth in Q3, although lower than in the previous quarter (+1.4pps). Consumption increased by 0.6% y/y, helped by a 4.4% rise in government consumption, while private consumption stagnated. Consumption has a positive 0.4pps contribution to the GDP growth in Q3. Net exports had a positive 0.7pps contribution to the GDP growth in the period as well, after exports increased by 6% y/y, faster than imports’ growth of 5.8% y/y.

In regional comparison, Hungary’s seasonally adjusted GDP (1.6% y/y) performed better than the eurozone (-0.4% y/y). The Czech GDP contracted in Q3, while Poland witnessed a strong 1.7% y/y GDP growth. Hungary’s main trade partners, Germany and Austria saw their economies growing by 0.6% y/y and 0.2% y/y, respectively in Q3, Eurostat data showed.

Hungary’s economy ministry said earlier it expects GDP growth to accelerate further to 2.5% in Q4 2013, while the full-year growth could even surpass 1%.

GDP, constant prices     2011         2012       2013  
  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3
Y/Y change, unadjusted data 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 -0.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.7 -1.7 -0.8 0.5 1.8 0.6
Q/Q change, seasonally and calendar effects adjusted data 1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 - -1.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 - 0.9 0.4 0.9 -
                          Source: KSH

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