Gap between Bulgaria's two major parties rises to 4.2pps in August - Gallup poll

By bne IntelliNews August 21, 2013

The gap between the two major parties in Bulgaria - socialist BSP and centre-right CEDB - has increased to 4.2pps in August from 3.8pps in July, according to a Gallup International poll done between August 1-8 among 1,013 participants.

The poll showed that the support for former ruling party CEDB (presently the only opposition in parliament) continued to erode. If elections were held today the party would get 17.5% of the vote compared to 17.8% in July and 18.4% in June (right after the snap election). On the other hand, despite the continuing for more than two straight months anti-government protests, the support for the current senior ruling party BSP, which came into power at the end of May, inched up to 21.7% in August from 21.6% in July. Compared to June, though, the socialist party was 1.8pps less popular.

Ethnic Turkish party MRF, junior partner in the ruling coalition, had 6% of the vote in August, down from 6.7% in July and 7.6% in June. Support for the fourth parliamentary represented party, radical Ataka, rose to 2.4% in August, up from 1.8% in July. National Front for Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB), a splinter from Ataka, became gain slightly more votes in August and now has 2.5% up by 0.1pps m/m. The support for Meglena Kuneva’s Movement Bulgaria for the Citizens (BFC) remained at 2.6% - the same as in July.

This is the first poll in which Gallup International measures the support for the newly-announced right-wing Reformist Block, which comprises BFC, DSB, The Greens, and other smaller outfits. According to the poll, the young coalition, which was established in June, would attract 7% of the vote if elections were held today.

Some 40% of the participants in the polls confirmed they supported the ongoing protests. Another 40% said they are against them, which proves that despite the fact that BSP was off to a very bad start, the party continues to enjoy a very strong and mobilised core.

Who Would Bulgarians Vote For If Elections Were Held Today        
Month Polling agency CEDB BSP MRF Ataka NFSB BFC DSB Reformist block
Aug'13 Gallup 17.5% 21.7% 6.0% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 1.5% 7%
July'13 NCIOM 22-23% 19-20% 6-7% 3% 3% 3% / /
July'13 Gallup 17.8% 21.6% 6.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.6% 1.6% /
June'13 Gallup 18.4% 23.5% 7.6% 3.4% 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% /
May'13 Gallup 24.0% 23.6% 7.1% 3.6% 1.6% 3.7% 1.4% /
April'13 NCIOM 23.6% 17.7% 6.0% 4.9% / 3.0% /  
Compiled by IntelliNews                

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