Poland's economic growth will probably speed up to 3.0% in 2014, according to Fitch Ratings' director for sovereign ratings Paul Rawkins. In December, the agency expected Poland's economy to expand at a rate of 2.4% in 2014.
According to preliminary data, Poland's GDP slowed down to 1.6% in 2013 from 1.9% a year earlier. The 2014 state budget law stipulates for growth of 2.5%, but both the Premier and the minister of finance hope for a 3.0% result. The central bank's November projection envisaged growth of 2.9% for 2014, but some of its representatives bet on a higher outcome. Also, more and more bank economists expect this year's growth to exceed 3.0%.
Earlier this month, Fitch forecasted that Poland's GDP growth will be close to long-term potential in 2014-2015 and in line with the 'A' median, albeit exposed to euro-zone developments via extensive trade and financial links. It also points to improving external finances underpinned by expected modest current account deficits in 2014-15, and sufficient buffers against potential external shocks.
In August, Fitch Ratings revised Poland's Outlook to Stable from Positive while simultaneously affirming its Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'A-' and 'A', respectively. It also affirmed Poland's Short-term rating at 'F2' and Country Ceiling at 'AA-'.
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