Estonian industrial production growth picked up speed to 6.2% y/y in October, working-day adjusted data from Statistics Estonia showed on November 30.
The expansion is 2.2pp above the annual reading for September, moving output growth closer to figures above 10% y/y observed earlier this year. The acceleration of industrial production comes after three months of growth slowing down, extending the positive streak in the sector to 14 consecutive months, a good sign for the economy as a whole.
Estonian GDP grew just 1.6% in 2016, still improving on the six-year low of 1.1% the preceding year. The economy made a good start to 2017, with first quarter GDP growing 4.4%, then surging to 5.7% y/y in April-June, and – in data announced on the same day as industrial production – growing 4.2% y/y in the third quarter. Expansion forecasts for 2017 range from 2.3% by the European Commission to beyond 3.5%, according to Swedbank.
In unadjusted annual terms, industrial production grew 8.9% in October. In seasonally adjusted monthly terms, output gained 1.8%.
The adjusted annual production growth in October was driven by expansion in the manufacturing and mining segments, where output expanded 8.1% and 19.8% on an annual basis, respectively. Energy production fell 7.5% y/y.
Most manufacturing sub-segments increased output, with the exception of computers, electronics, optical products and furniture. That repeated the pattern seen in the previous month.
Around 66% of industrial output was sold on the external market, Statistics Estonia also reported. That has been nearly a constant ratio over several months now. According to unadjusted data, export sales of manufacturing production jumped 15% y/y in October, while domestic sales rose 14% y/y.