Estonia’s PPI down to 3.5% y/y in July.

By bne IntelliNews August 21, 2013

Estonia’s PPI amounted to 3.5% y/y and -2.2% m/m in July 2013, decreasing from 6% y/y and 2.5% m/m peak that was seen in June, data by Statistics Estonia shows. After peaking to the fastest producer price growth last month in July the indicator seems to continue the dynamic seen previously in 2013.

PPI in y/y terms was moderating throughout 2011 and 2012 to 2.1% in December 2012, but hiked in Jan-Feb 2013 on higher prices of electricity as a result of total deregulation of the electricity market that took effect as of 2013. This trend is confirmed also by July’s data, with prices of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply increasing by 22% y/y (34%-35% y/y in April-March). In m/m terms, the prices of utilities dropped by 19% m/m.

Manufacturing PPI, at the same time, remained stable at 1.4% y/y in July after 1.6% y/y seen in March and June, 1.1% y/y in April, and 1.7% y/y in May.

CPI inflation amounted to 3.4% y/y and -0.1% m/m in July 2013. Prices growth moderated in July. Previously accelerating in February to 3.7% y/y on high food prices, consumer prices declined for two consecutive months and rebounded slightly in May.

The Bank of Estonia commented on the July 2013 inflation data that despite electricity and food prices exercising the largest pressure on the consumer prices, the impact of the electricity prices somewhat eased. The CB notes that in past month electricity contributed the most to prices’ volatility.

The central bank also stressed that despite food prices’ growth in July, all of its segments apart from fruits and vegetables remained stable. Also core inflation remained low at 1.3% y/y in July. The Bank of Estonia reiterated its forecast of 3% average HCPI for 2013. 

%, y/y  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012
PPI 0.2 2.9 2.1 4.5 8.3 7.2 -0.5 3.3 4.4 2.3
Mining 2.2 1.6 2.6 5.5 6.7 11.7 9.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.8
Utilities 2.8 2.7 -2.6 1.3 7.1 20.7 16.2 1.9 2.5 5.8
Manufacturing -0.2 2.8 2.5 4.6 8.4 5.9 -2.4 3.6 4.8 2.0
Source: Stat.ee, CEIC                  

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