It seems a bit premature to start talking about a ‘Trexit’ given that Turkey has never actually made it into the European Union, but that’s what the Turkish press were referring to on October 5 after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed he was considering putting Turkey’s long-stalled bid to join the bloc to a referendum.

The outspoken populist president is signalling exasperation with a process he says has been waylaid by prejudice against Muslims and there is even speculation that the vote could be run in parallel with local elections that must take place by March 2019.

When it comes to Turkey’s hopes of joining the EU, Erdogan has clearly not been particularly encouraged by his visit last week to Germany or the Dutch foreign minister’s visit this week to Turkey.

A direct vote on whether to continue Turkey’s decades-old candidacy for EU membership could potentially end Ankara’s negotiations for accession and increase its distance from the West. However, it is possible that Turkey might arrange an advisory referendum, rather than a binding one, if it goes for one at all.

It was back in 1987 that Turkey applied to accede to the European Economic Community, the predecessor of the EU. Ankara signed a Customs Union with Brussels in 1995 and Turkey was officially recognised as a candidate for full EU membership in December 1999. In 1949, Turkey was one of the first countries to become a member of the Council of Europe, an organisation that upholds human rights, democracy and the rule of law—no country has ever joined the EU without first being a member of the Council of Europe.

Hyper-critical
EU countries, particularly Germany, became hyper-critical of Turkey and Erdogan in the aftermath of the attempted coup in July 2016. The sweeping security crackdown under a two-year-long state of emergency that followed the failed putsch saw more than 100,000 people jailed and dozens of media outlets shut down, with Turkey in the process becoming the world’s biggest jailer of journalists. Erdogan has fumed over what he sees as a lack of support from the West. Many critics have accused him of using the botched coup effort as a pretext for launching a crackdown on opponents, legitimate or otherwise.

“It is 2018 and they [the EU] are still keeping us waiting,” Erdogan said at a forum in Istanbul, according to Reuters. “It is for us to go to 81 million people and see what decision the 81 million people give,” he added, referring to Turkey’s population.

If the decision to hold a referendum were taken, measures could be taken “immediately”, he added.

“Let’s put it on the table with colleagues and discuss it as party chairman and after that, the moment one has said ‘ok’ we will immediately take our step,” he said.

“There are European countries where they squeeze two or three referendums into one year. Actually, one has to get used to referendums.”

Anti-Muslim sentiment
Erdogan, whose roots are in political Islam, has long accused EU member states of harbouring anti-Muslim sentiment, saying that the bloc is uneasy at the prospect of having a majority-Muslim country as a member.

Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok, on a visit to Ankara on October 3, said Turkey must address issues around the rule of law and human rights to get back on the EU accession path.

“The [EU accession] negotiations have come to a standstill. There are a lot of criteria to be met, especially regarding the rule of law and human rights,” Blok said. “Criteria are there to be met. Steps have to be taken to make progress possible.”

Ankara, struggling to fix a multi-faceted rift with the US which severely aggravated Turkey’s currency crisis in August, has been pushing to achieve an economic shot in the arm from smoothing relations with Europe that became increasingly troubled during the state of emergency, ended in July. The country appears to be on the verge of a painful recession and it could actually do with repairing badly upset relations with both Washington and economic superpower Germany to obtain a timely economic boost.

During his visit to Germany, Erdogan said that Turkey would quickly meet the criteria to achieve visa liberalisation with the EU, but at a joint press conference German Chancellor Angela Merkel, mindful of a home audience that polls show very much believes democracy is under threat in Turkey, did not give her counterpart an easy ride on human rights or the concept of a democratic constitution.

Turkey’s relations with both the Netherlands and Germany were early last year strained by angry outbursts from Erdogan directed at Berlin and The Hague after the Dutch and Germans restricted the campaigning they would allow among expatriate Turkish communities in their countries in advance of the referendum on whether Turkey’s president should be granted an executive presidency with vastly expanded powers. Erdogan officially narrowly won the vote and in July this year commenced the new-style presidency. The role of prime minister has been abolished in Turkey, while the Turkish parliament plays a diminished role in what is now a presidential republic.