Consumer inflation will probably inch up to 1.1% y/y in October from 1.0% posted a month earlier, according to the ministry of economy's analysts. In September, the annual CPI inflation was 1,0% vs. market consensus of 1.1%. The ministry said that the September figure was in line with its expectations.
In monthly terms, the ministry's experts forecast price growth of 0.3% in October, chiefly due to higher food and clothing prices (in September, they were 0.0% m/m and +0.7% m/m, respectively), with stable fuel prices (though fuel prices for individual means of transport rose by 1.8% m/m in September).
Bank analysts expect inflation to gradually pick up and to reach around (but probably less than) 1.5% y/y at the end of 2013. The central bank's CPI target is 2.5% +/- 1pp.
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