EC raises Poland's 2010 GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 1.8%.

By bne IntelliNews February 26, 2010
The European Commission expects Poland's real GDP growth to reach 2.6% in 2010 vs. 1.8% assumed in its autumn forecasts, the EC said in its Interim Forecast. February 2010 . The Commission also estimates Poland's 2009 GDP rise at 1.2%, i.e. by 0.5pps more than it expected in the autumn forecast. The EC forecasts GDP rise, in quarterly terms, at 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.8% and 0.9% in subsequent quarters of 2010, while it estimates the Q4/2009 growth at 1.7% q/q (vs. 0.1%, 0.5% and 0.5% in Q1-3/2009, respectively). The Commission stresses that in 2009, the upswing was driven by a sharp increase in public investment (partly co-financed by EU funds) and a rebound of exports. Private consumption continued to increase, supported by better-than-expected employment performance and cuts in the personal income tax rates. In 2010, the recovery would continue to be driven by exports , which will benefit from the rebound in external demand and the lagging positive effects of the past exchange rate depreciation. The latter effect will however gradually fade away and domestic demand will become the main driver of growth in 2010 , the Commission argued. It also expects investments to recover slowly after the drop recorded in 2009. This will reflect robust public spending in capital expenditure, firming-up production expectations and improved perception of the Polish economy among foreign investors, attracting FDI inflows, it added. The EC forecasts HICP inflation - which amounted to 4.0% y/y at end-2009 (slightly above the autumn forecast) - to remain close to the central bank's inflation target of 2.5% over the forecast horizon, reflecting the large negative output gap caused by the crisis. At end-2010, it should be 2.3% y/y (vs. 1.9% expected in the autumn), the Commission said.

Read in IntelliNews Pro
Get IntelliNews Pro

Related Articles

EC refers Poland to court for delay on renewable energy rules.

The European Commission is referring Poland (and Cyprus) to the Court of Justice of the European Union for failing to fully transpose EU's Renewable Energy Directive, according to the ... more

ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator for Poland surges to 42.9pts in February.

The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Poland (economic expectations) surged by 22.3pts m/m to 42.9pts in February, according to a report by the Center for European Economic ... more

FinMin: Poland to inject EUR 5.5bn of FX reserves to ECB upon euro-zone entry.

When Poland joins the euro-zone, it will have to transfer EUR 5.47bn of its foreign-currency reserves to the European Central Bank, according to a statement by the ministry of finance. The ... more

Follow Us On

Most Read

  1. Ukraine's birth rate plummets to 300-year low as country’s population collapses
    8 days ago
  2. EU finally boosts defence investment into arms production as Ukraine runs out of ammo
    1 month ago
  3. Fresh evidence suggests that the April 2022 Istanbul peace deal to end the war in Ukraine was stillborn
    8 days ago
  4. Don't mention the "D" word - Ukraine
    5 days ago
  5. Europe unlikely to tackle Russian LNG imports anytime soon
    2 days ago
  1. Russia could pay off its entire external debt tomorrow, in cash
    26 days ago
  2. Speculation swirls of “Men in Blue” in Crocus City Hall terrorist attack linked to FSB
    30 days ago
  3. Albanians campaign on social media to keep bus bridge created in freak accident
    1 year ago
  4. BRICS announce a blockchain-based payment system to create a common currency
    28 days ago
  5. Saudi Arabia to scale back plans for Neom city
    15 days ago

Reports

Dismiss