The European Commission raised its forecast for Macedonia's 2013 economic growth to 2.1% in the autumn edition of its European Economic Forecast from 1.5% projected in its spring forecast. Economic growth in the Balkan country is seen accelerating to 2.5% in 2014 and 2.8% in 2015 on the back of strong foreign direct investment and public investment spending.
The Commission’s forecasts for 2013 and 2014 GDP growth in Macedonia are below those of the IMF. In October, the IMF said that it expects GDP growth of 2.2% this year and 3.2% next year. The forecasts of Macedonia’s ministry of finance and central bank are for 2013 economic growth of 2% and 2.2%, respectively. However, both deputy PM and minister of finance Zoran Stavreski and central bank governor Dimitar Bogov have said recently that they already expect better growth outcomes this year.
The EC projects gradual decline in Macedonia’s general government deficit from 4% of GDP in 2012 to 3.3% of GDP in 2015. However, the central government debt is expected to rise from 34% of GDP in 2012 to 39.4% of GDP by 2015. The report further notes that this figure does not include the debt of state-owned companies, such as the Road Fund, “whose balance sheets are affected by the government's credit-financed infrastructure investments.”
| EC forecast for Macedonia | ||||
| (annual percentage change) | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| GDP | -0.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Private Consumption | -1.2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Public Consumption | -2.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 16.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 7.5 |
| Exports (goods and services) | 0.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Imports (goods and services) | 4.2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 6.2 |
| Source: European Commission |
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