EBRD to revise down 2013 GDP growth forecast for SEE - lead economist

By bne IntelliNews October 22, 2013

The EBRD will likely revise downward its 2013 growth projection for the SEE region from its current 1.4% estimate published in May*, the bank’s lead economist Peter Sanfey said on Friday, October 18. The EBRD now expects a minimal GDP expansion in the region, Sanfey told the EU-Balkan summit conference organised by the Economist Intelligence Unit in Sofia last week.

Growth will strengthen to an average of 1.5-2.0% in 2014 but will remain well below the growth rates in other emerging markets, Sanfey said. The EBRD will publish a detailed forecast in the coming weeks.

The Bank’s growth outlook is in line with the latest projections of the IMF for a weak GDP expansion of the SEE region, Sanfey added. According to IntelliNews calculation based on the October World Economic Outlook, the region will grow an average 1.3% in 2013 and 2.1% in 2014.

Sanfey underscored the countries in the region cannot rely on monetary and fiscal policy levers any more to stimulate growth due to the high fiscal imbalances. There are severe fiscal problems in Serbia where the budget gap is estimated at some 7.5% of GDP by the IMF but also in Albania, Croatia and Montenegro, Sanfey said. On the monetary side, the small size of the Balkan economies considerably limits the effectiveness of their monetary policies.

It is therefore essential to identify bottlenecks to growth and act through structural reforms. In particular, institutional reforms in the region could bring real benefits and add up to one percentage point of growth each year, Sanfey said. The SEE average growth in the long term could thus reach 3.5-4.0%, up from 2.0-3.0% currently projected.

* includes Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia.

Related Articles

RBI doubles net profit y/y in Q1 as Russian business recovers

Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI), the second largest bank operating across Central and Eastern Europe by assets, reported that net profit almost doubled year-on-year to €220mn in the first ... more

China's Hesteel Group to boost investments in Serbia’s Smederevo steel mill

Representatives of China's Hesteel Group, which acquired Serbia’s only steel mill Zelezara Smederevo in July 2016, plan to invest ... more

French court refuses to extradite ex-Kosovo PM Haradinaj to Serbia

The Court of Appeals in the French town of Colmar decided on April 27 not to extradite Kosovo’s former Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj to Serbia.  The decision was celebrated in Kosovo and ... more

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Dismiss