EBRD revises growth outlooks for Eurasian economies

By bne IntelliNews November 6, 2015

Growth in Central Asia is expected to decelerate significantly in 2015-16 compared with 2014 on account of lower commodity prices and the region’s strong economic ties with Russia, while Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are expected to post low single-digit growth, the EBRD says in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report.

A sharper-than-expected deceleration in China would also spark renewed volatility and a loss of confidence in emerging markets more broadly, and increase downward pressures on commodity prices. This will directly affect the regional countries, while a significant further decline in oil prices would intensify pressures on the Russian economy, with negative spill-overs for the economies in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the report predicts.

From its May report the EBRD improved forecasts for Armenia by 3.8 percentage points and now predicts 2.3% growth in 2015, for Azerbaijan by 1.5 percentage points to 3%, for Georgia 0.2 percentage points to 2.5%, for Kyrgyzstan by 2 percentage points to 5%, for Tajikistan 1.2 percentage points to 5% and for Uzbekistan 0.5 percentage points to 7.5%.

For the region’s largest economy, Kazakhstan, the EBRD lowered forecasts by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%. The other two resources-dependent economies, Mongolia and Turkmenistan, also had their growth forecasts reduced: by 0.7 percentage points to 3.3% for the former and by one percentage point to 8.5% for the latter.

Related Articles

Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia enjoying Persian new year influx of Iranians

Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are enjoying a welcome injection of revenues from the annual influx of Iranians enjoying their long Nowruz Persian new year holiday. Anecdotal evidence indicates ... more

Iran could join Moscow-led EEU by May says Russian minister

Russia’s Energy Minister Aleksander Novak has said Iran could join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) by May, RT reported on March 10. Tehran has repeatedly lobbied Moscow over the past year to ... more

Armenian energy minister says renewables, nuclear power to replace Russian gas

The Armenian government will continue with its efforts to reduce the share of Russian gas in the country's electricity mix, Energy Minister Ashot Maukyan said on January 31, according to the local ... more

Dismiss