EBRD raises Poland's 2010 GDP growth forecast to 2.3%.

By bne IntelliNews January 25, 2010
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its forecast for Poland's GDP growth to 2.3% in 2010 from 1.8% expected in October, the institution has said in a report. It estimates the 2009 growth at 1.4% (vs. October's 1.3%) and expects the Polish economy to expand by 3.0% in 2011. The EBRD has upgraded the forecasts for the entire region consisting of 30 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia, including Turkey, "reflecting a slightly faster economic recovery than anticipated last October, but with stark variation across the region." Following a contraction of real GDP of about 6.0% in 2009, the EBRD now expects average growth for the region of 3.3% in 2010, compared to 2.5% predicted in October. For 2011, the EBRD predicts average regional growth of 3.8%. "The upward revision is driven by stronger than expected performance in four large economies in the region: Poland, Turkey, Russia, and Kazakhstan, on the back of stronger commodity prices, and a resumption of capital flows to large emerging market countries," the institution explained. The government assumes (in the 2010 central budget law) GDP growth of 0.9% in 2009 and 1.2% in 2010. Earlier, its representatives repeatedly admitted that the economy might expand by up to 1.5% already in 2009 and would pick up further next year, possibly reaching (according to deputy PM Waldemar Pawlak) 3.0%. tom

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