EBRD raises Macedonia’s 2014 GDP growth forecast to 3%

By bne IntelliNews January 22, 2014

The EBRD has raised its 2014 GDP growth forecast for Macedonia to 3% in the January edition of its Regional Economic Prospects report from 2.7%, which was projected in October 2013. The EBRD has also raised its estimate for the 2013 GDP growth in Macedonia - to 3% from 2.4%.

The Bank said that the Balkan country’s economic performance has improved last year. The EBRD estimates that the output increased on average by 3.4% y/y in Jan-Sep 2013 mainly on the back of continued strong growth of investment as well as some recovery of exports. On the other hand, the Bank comments that consumption remains a drag on growth. It estimates that the GDP in Macedonia grew by 1.9% y/y in Q4 2013.

The EBRD expects the country’s intensive efforts to attract much-needed FDI to help growth prospects. The 3% GDP growth projection for 2014 reflects expected strong growth of exports as well as domestic consumption and investment. The bank projects average inflation of 2.1% in 2014, down from 2.8% in 2013.

The EBRD’s latest 2014 forecast for Macedonia is equal with the one of the World Bank, announced earlier this month. They are slightly below the government’s projection of 3.2% GDP growth this year, used in the preparation of the 2014 budget. All three are higher than the European Commission’s forecast for 2.5% economic growth in Macedonia in 2014, announced in November 2013.

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