| In its latest quarterly economic report, the EBRD forecasts real GDP growth of 3.2% in Macedonia this year, up from 2.3% projected in October. The bank said that Macedonia is among the countries benefiting from global demand for key metal commodities. The EBRD also noted that the country has received an IMF Precautionary Credit Line. The institution has not changed its estimate of the GDP growth for 2010, which is 0.8%. The EBRD forecasts the growth in Q4 2010 at 1.8% y/y. Intellinews comment: The revised EBRD projection comes close to the official GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for this year. On the other hand, earlier this month Dun & Bradstreet said that it forecasts growth of 2% this year. Another relatively low projection is that by the European Commission, which said in November that it expects GDP growth of 2.2% in 2011. We tend to agree with the higher forecasts, but also with the EBRDs remark that downside risks have increased. Such risks include, among others, sooner than expected monetary tightening in advanced countries, as well as stronger increase in global risk aversion than the one seen so far. |
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