The EBRD maintained its 1.4% forecast for Romania’s 2013 GDP growth in its latest Regional Economic Prospects published on May 10. The forecast was initially made in January.
The Romanian government has continued macroeconomic discipline [fiscal consolidation] in 2012 despite the electoral year, the Bank remarks, saying it expects a “modest recovery” this year on the back of a modest revival of the domestic demand and confidence.
The 2012 GDP performance as reported by the national authorities was upped from 0.3% to 0.7% between the Bank’s two forecasts in January and May. The industry sector in particular performed better than initially estimated in 2012, data from the country’s statistics office show.
The forecast is slightly more pessimistic than those of the government, the EC and the IMF – all of them expect 1.6% growth this year. The differential is however very small given the high volatility of the value added generated by the country’s agriculture and the high uncertainties related to the absorption of EU funds.
Romania’s GDP growth rate will accelerate to 2.2% y/y in 2014, the EBRD says. The country’s expected performance this year and in 2014 is in line with the region’s averages.
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