Ukraine has at least $1bn of debt to repay this autumn but only $17.7bn as gross international reserves (GIR), equivalent to three months import cover, the safe minimum countries need to keep their currencies stable.
The decennial of the Georgia-Russia war is a potent reminder of the tragic repercussions of the conflict, the seeming intractability of Western-Russia relations, and the uncomfortable limitations of Euro-Atlantic security architecture.
The Ukrainian economy is growing at a healthy rate, but the situation could turn on a dime if the government fails to restart the IMF $17.5bn stand by programme in September.
August is the month when unusual and trend changing events take place in Russia, and this year is shaping up to be one of those that confirms the sequence with a group of US senators determined to push new and dangerous sanctions legislation.
The new reality where the EU is "a foe" and Vladimir Putin is "a partner" is not good for Ukraine.