Eastern Europe / Opinion

COMMENT: Overheating in Russia and Turkey, but CEE recovering

Ben Aris in Berlin March 27, 2024

The economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which experienced a period of stagnation last year, are poised for a modest revival in 2024, but both the Russian and Turkish economies are already overheating.

UBN: Russia could take the Baltic states in 48 hours

Andrew Pryma of UBN in Kyiv March 21, 2024

Russian forces must only make an offensive push for 250km to cut the Baltic states from Europe.

COMMENT: Rising tension between France and Azerbaijan is a drag on peace process with Armenia

Seymur Mammadov in Baku March 19, 2024

France is taking independent steps regarding the South Caucasus, as French President Emmanuel Macron attempts to bolster his role as a top European leader.

CENUSA: Europe needs to reduce the risks of destabilisation in its eastern neighbourhood

Denis Cenusa in Giessen March 8, 2024

Candidate states for EU accession such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia remain in a zone of insecurity where Russia can intervene minimally in a hybrid way.

Two years later: addressing long-term consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – Bruegel discussion

Ben Aris in Peterborough March 8, 2024

Sanctions on Russia have had mixed results after two years of war, inflicting real pain on the Russian economy, but the lack of effective enforcement has muted their effect, a panel organised by Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel.

KSE: Ukraine’s state debt review 2023

Kyiv School of Economics Center of Public Finance and Governance March 6, 2024

In 2023, the combined state debt and state-guaranteed debt increased by 30.4% to $145.3bn, representing 85% of the estimated GDP (up from 49% in 2021 and 77.8% in 2022).

Two ways of fighting Putin: Navalny vs Maidan

Leonid Ragozin in Riga March 1, 2024

February is the new August in Russia. Ever since the 1991 coup that ended Soviet communism August was reputed to be the month of black swans that changed the course of Russian history.

KABANOVSKY: Cynicism is Russia's Achilles’ Heel

Alexander Kabanovsky in Berlin February 26, 2024

Watching Yulia Navalnaya's stoic declaration to carry on her husband's battle against Putin and his regime, I found myself wrestling with scepticism, not about Yulia's intentions or her undeniable bravery, but about the broader context she is in.

Balkans a prime target for Russia's unconventional warfare tactics

bne IntelliNews February 22, 2024

Moldova and Montenegro already targets of Russian destabilisation efforts, says RUSI report.

KABANOVSKY: Has Putin created a martyr?

Alexander Kabanovsky in Berlin February 17, 2024

It is a sad day for anyone interested in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Alexey Navalny, for all his flaws, represented a brave, unyielding voice in the wilderness refusing to succumb to fear of a merciless regime.

McFAUL: Trump does not understand or value Nato and that’s very dangerous

Michael McFaul in Stanford February 14, 2024

I cannot recall another instance in history when a US president invited an enemy to attack our allies. Imagine how those comments sound in Lithuania, Estonia, or Poland.

KSE: Just under 10% of foreign companies working in Russia have left, more than half are staying

Kyiv School of Economics February 13, 2024

As of February 4, 2024, 356 international companies (9.6% of the total number of entries in the KSE database, or 27.8% of the companies that generated revenue in Russia in 2022) have entirely ceased operations in Russia.

PANNIER: Response to Bishkek thermal power plant explosion lifts lid on Central Asia relations

Bruce Pannier February 6, 2024

And what’s seen is quite encouraging.

CENUSA: EU faces consequences of geopolitical crises as Eastern Europe enters complex political-electoral phase

Denis Cenusa in Giessen January 30, 2024

Eurosceptics' ability to exploit protests will test the EU's potential to influence its Eastern Neighbourhood. At the same time, electoral cycles in Eastern Europe favour the consolidation and perpetuation of autocracies.

McFAUL: Underestimating the Russian threat to Europe

Michael McFaul in Stanford January 26, 2024

Over the last two years, I have given a lot of talks around the United States and the world about the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I have a talk discerning the causes of the war and the possibility of a Russia-Nato clash.

UBN: Ignore the Headlines - Momentum is Moving in Ukraine’s Direction, not Russia’s

Mark McNamee of UBN in Kyiv January 25, 2024

For all the talk of the Kremlin’s rising confidence since late 2023, the reality is in fact far from encouraging for Russia. Rather oddly, a nation mired in a foreign war it cannot easily extricate itself from against a far smaller adversary.

KSE: External conditions to undermine Russia’s macro stability in 2024

Kyiv School of Economics January 24, 2024

External environment has become dramatically less supportive for the Russian economy and critical buffers are coming under pressure, Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) said in its latest Russia Chartbook released on January 24.

STOLYPIN: No, World War III is not on the horizon

Mark Galeotti director of consultancy Mayak Intelligence January 20, 2024

It has suddenly become unexpectedly and depressingly fashionable to predict the imminence of World War III, and the westward march of Moscow’s grim legions.

GUSTAFSON: The rise and fall of Russian steel

Professor Thane Gustafson in Washington January 16, 2024

In Soviet times, the steel industry was the very symbol of the country’s planned industrialization. The sector revived in the 1990s before flourishing in the noughties, becoming one of Russia's big export-earners. But sanctions have hit it hard.

BOFIT: Uncertainty over foreign aid clouds Ukraine’s otherwise better-than-expected economic performance

Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) January 8, 2024

Preliminary figures from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (Ukrstat) show that Ukraine’s GDP grew by 9.3% y/y in the third quarter of 2023. But the outlook for 2024 is clouded by uncertainty over crucial western funding.

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