The death toll in the blaze at the Winter Cherry shopping mall in the Siberian city of Kemerovo could be five times the official estimate and those killed “mostly consist of children,” it emerged on March 26. Moreover, CCTV footage of the start of the blaze that has shocked Russia suggests it was a terrorist act where an incendiary bomb was deliberately thrown into the children's play area.

Residents of the small town are openly questioning the official death toll which stood at 64 at the time of writing and say they believe “more than 300” people died in the inferno and possibly as many as 570 lost their lives.

The victims could mostly have been children who were bussed into the small regional city from nearby settlements to enjoy the upcoming Easter break.

A CCTV video posted on social media shows the start of the fire that broke out on the fourth floor in the children's play area next to a cinema, and appears to be a deliberate terrorist act. In the footage a man walked into the play area carrying a bag which he tossed into the room before quickly leaving. Flames exploded in the room a few moments later and thick black smoke filled the room within seconds. People could be seen running from the area in panic.

The flames spread extremely rapidly, trapping many on the upper floors. Other footage showed some shoppers leaping from upper story windows. One relative interviewed by local TV said that her 11-year-old grandson was now in hospital as a result. “All his bones are broken and the child’s mother and father died in the fall,” she told the interviewer.

“We live in a small town and everyone knows someone who died here,” another women told local TV. “I looked at the list of those who didn't survive and I realised that I know half the names on the list,” she continued, breaking into tears.

There are reports that the authorities are trying to play down the death toll and that first responders were told to be “silent.”

“We have a family member who is a fireman. Everyone was told to keep silent. At night body bags were prepared: about 100 bags for small children and another 60 for adults. Do you think there were only 15 people in the cinema? If it was a premiere then probably the hall was packed and no one could get out. It is obvious that more than 100 people died,” Yulia Kiryakova wrote on social media reports the local paper.

Collating the information being posted on social media by relatives and witnesses, the estimate of the death toll is closer to 350 and could be as high as 570 with “the majority of the dead being children,” Moscow 24/7 reported.

Residents of Kemerovo have piled flowers outside the shopping centre in a rapidly growing makeshift shrine. In Moscow too, residents of the capital have been laying flowers and candles on the pavement outside the Kemerovo regional representative’s building; Russia’s regions maintain de facto embassies in Moscow close to the government quarters.

A bad day to expel diplomats

By unhappy coincidence the tragedy occurred on the Sunday before most of western Europe and the US decided to expel a total of 134 Russian diplomats in a gesture to show unity with the UK over the poisoning of a former Russian spy.

The UK expelled 23 Russian diplomats a week earlier in retaliation for the alleged state plot to assassinate the former double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury on March 4 with a weapons-grade nerve agent. While the fire happened on Sunday March 25, the full scale of the disaster in Siberia was still emerging in the latter half of Monday. 

At the time of writing 15 EU members had announced they were expelling Russian diplomats but by the late afternoon of March 26 some European leaders began to include messages of condolences, acknowledging the tragedy unfolding in Siberia.

“To recall, last week the European Council condemned in the strongest possible terms the recent attack in Salisbury. The European Council agreed with the United Kingdom government's assessment that it is highly likely that the Russian Federation is responsible and that there is no plausible alternative explanation. We decided to recall the EU Ambassador to Russia for consultations,” EU President Donald Tusk said in a statement released on March 26.

However, he continued and offered his condolences to the Russian people.

“We remain critical of the actions of the Russian government, but at the same time, today we Europeans – together with the Russian people – mourn the victims of the tragic fire in the city of Kemerovo in Western Siberia. Our thoughts and hearts are with you,” Tusk concluded.

The new US ambassador to Russia John Huntsman also made a video statement following US President Donald Trump’s decision to expel 60 Russian diplomats from the US, the “largest expulsion of intelligence agents in US history,” the ambassador said.

Huntsman drew criticism for failing to mention the Siberian tragedy. Indeed, the whole idea of expulsions has been criticised by some Russia-watchers as counter productive. The omission of at least a token note of sympathy is important as the Kremlin has very successfully bee arguing Russia is under attack by the west and Russians are increasingly rejecting the west and its values as a result. A poll conducted this week found that only 5% of Russians believe the state was behind the poisoning of Skripal and Putin won a geniune extra 10mn votes in the presidential election on March 18 compared with his last result in 2012 -- even after the fake 10mn votes added in to both elections is counted out. 

“The expulsion of diplomats strengthens the bond between Putin and his constituency, because it enhances the besieged fortress complex. A move against mafia state assets would, on the other hand, damage this bond, because Russians have no sympathy for London-based kleptocrats,” tweeted Leonid Ragozin, a Russian journalist that has worked for the BBC and Newsweek.

While many hailed the decision to expel Russian diplomats labelled by the US embassy as “intelligence officers”, most European countries made the gesture but kept the numbers low. 

The leaders were the US with 60 expelled diplomats, followed by the UK with 23. However, from the rest of Europe in third place was Ukraine that will send 13 diplomats home, but none of the other European countries expelled more than four diplomats, in a move clearly designed to show solidarity with the UK but to keep the slight to Russia to a minimum. Most European countries clearly feared tit-for-tat reprisals and intend to keep communication channels open thanks to signifcant investments in Russia by their countries and the need to engage with Russia in other international problems like Syria and North Korea. 

The complete list includes: Germany 4, Poland 4, France 4, Czech Republic 3, Lithuania 3, Italy 2, Denmark 2, Netherlands 2, Latvia 1, Finland 1, Estonia 1, Romania 1, Sweden 1, Croatia 1 and Spain 2.

In addition, many EU countries chose not to expel any diplomats at all, including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia.