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Turkey’s foreign trade gap contracted by 59% y/y to stand at $2.42bn in August, national statistics office TUIK reported on September 27.
The first contraction seen in the trade shortfall for a year, measured at 9% y/y, was recorded in June. Subsequently, the July data brought an acceleration in the pace of the rebalancing seen in the Turkish economy with the trade deficit shrinking by 32.5% y/y.
An initial sign of the rebalancing to come amid Turkey’s economic turmoil—the country is mired in a currency collapse that threatens to bring about a banking crisis, and a recession appears to be setting in—emerged in May when growth in the year on year foreign trade gap fell sharply to 6% given the fast depreciation experienced by the Turkish lira (TRY) during the month. Prior to that, the trade deficit widened alarmingly across the first four months of this year when Turkey was still experiencing credit-fuelled economic growth running at ‘warp speed’.
Also according to the TUIK data, the foreign trade deficit grew 8% y/y to $49bn in January-August.
Exports were up 5% y/y to $109bn in the first eight months of 2018 but imports rose at the slightly higher pace of 6% y/y to reach $158bn.
The foreign trade gap rose by 37% y/y to $77bn in 2017. Exports were up 10% y/y to $157bn but imports rose at the faster pace of 18% y/y to reach $234bn.
The government is forecasting a foreign trade deficit of $66bn for 2018 (its previous forecast was for $68bn) with exports reaching $170bn (previous forecast $169bn) and imports amounting to $236bn (previous forecast $237bn), according to the latest medium term economic programme.
The government also forecasts that the average Brent oil price will be $72.8 per barrel in 2018, driving Turkey’s energy imports bill to $46bn from $37.2bn in 2017.
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