COMMENT: Bolton meets Putin in Moscow “All hail to Caesar”

COMMENT: Bolton meets Putin in Moscow “All hail to Caesar”
The upcoming Great Power summit with US President Donald Trump is a huge boon for Vladimir Putin. / Kremlin.ru
By Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management June 29, 2018

The body language from the photos released from the Bolton - Putin meeting on [June 27] could not hide the shear joy and indeed euphoria from Putin and Lavrov. 

With the Trump presidency their lottery ticket gamble on backing the Trump presidential bid paid off, and big time. Beyond their wildest dreams - better even than the unlikely event of Russia winning the World Cup on home turf. From this meeting you could almost see the dollar signs, or the equivalent (S400s) as to what makes Putin tick, ringing round in Putin’s eyes. Kerching!

Arguably from Putin’s annexation of Crimea, military intervention in Donbas, then Syria and earlier in Georgia, what he wanted above all was for Russia to be taken seriously by the US, as a Great Power peer, and for this status to be affirmed in some Great Power Summit, a Yalta II, where the two powers could divide the world up into spheres of influence, and with this then perhaps cooperate on areas of mutual interest such as  fighting radical Islamic terrorism, countering the rise of China, Iran, et al. And by defining spheres of influence he also wanted the US to accept a halt to further NATO expansion, as if not really representing a serious threat to Russia, it did represent an affront to Moscow - rubbing its nose in and further highlighting its decline since the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

But just imagine Putin’s man Trump is delivering on that and much much more. Not only a Great Power summit, likely in Helsinki now in mid July, but going beyond halting NATO expansion. Indeed Trump offers the prospect of being Putin’s Trojan horse within NATO. Remarkably Trump seems to be happy to work to an agenda which Putin could only have fantasised about - the end of NATO and the North Atlantic alliance. For Putin this is his equivalent of Soviet Union’s 1991 moment - his total victory over NATO. Unbelievable stuff, for any observer of geopolitics and post WWII European history. 

And if that were all not enough, Trump seems to be willing to also work to undermine Putin’s arch nemesis in Europe - perhaps his only true political hegemon in Europe, Angela Merkel. It as if the peace offering from Trump is the head of the West’s most experienced general - Angela Merkel - to Ceasar as proof of Trump’s unending loyalty to Putin. 

It is like total and utter surrender of the Western alliance by Trump, and his emissary [national security adviser John] Bolton, to Putin. And for what? 

Bolton seemingly let the cat out of the bag today by suggesting that for Trump the “deliverable” is the Summit - the photo opp for the new Emperor with no clothes in the White House - as was the case with the Trump - Kim summit. For nothing. The art of the deal for Trump just seems to be anything which massages his huge ego. My friend Kim. My friend Vlad. My friend MBS. And even perhaps to come my friend Recep. 

You might hope that Trump might get something in exchange - if Putin is feeling generous perhaps he could throw the crumb to Trump of getting Russian troops out of Donbas and Syria - oops, sorry, there are actually no Russian troops in Donbas. Or that at least is still the Russian script. But I guess if you bought the line that Russia only annexed Crimea and intervened militarily in Donbas to halt and counter the risk of further NATO expansion, then if there is a prospect of no more NATO then why the need to have Russian troops in Donbas or even retain annexed Crimea. That could be a serious win for Trump but it relies on Putin’s generosity in returning a favour - or many of them. 

Allowing for the reintegration of DPR and LPR and less likely Crimea back into Ukraine over the next few months would also serve the additional benefit to Putin of undermining political stability in Ukraine this side of presidential elections due by March 2019. Imagine the return of 3-5 million pro-Russian voters in those elections which could swing the vote towards pro—Russian candidates in an as yet unloved field. Putin would gain additional kudos of being seen as the peace maker, and importantly securing much desired sanctions moderation. He might also think that this could secure a pro-Russian win in the presidential elections in Ukraine - albeit I still think that is very unlikely.

You can build a logical case as to why Putin might offer Trump some kind of PR concession over Ukraine - albeit that all depends on whether Putin trusts that Trump has secured total victory against the D.C. establishment and its avowed hawkishness on Russia. But viewed from outside, and given Trumps rising poll ratings in the GOP and nationally, it seems it has. But the other question is whether Putin trusts those pesky Ukrainians also to follow his script and bow down to Russian leadership. 

Historically Putin and Russians have proven dreadful at reading Ukraine - likely as they prefer to fall into lazy stereotypes, and never put the effort into understanding Ukraine and Ukrainians. Likely it relates to a failure to accept Ukrainian identity as distinct from Russian. But the other strategic imperative for Putin and Moscow is to secure Russian strategic control over Ukraine - and therein it’s unclear here whether making concessions to Trump over Donbas would further that agenda at this stage. 

Actually the Kremlin PR machine were playing down the prospects of any big deals at Helsinki - suggesting that they felt little need to give Trump anything. I think here they just cannot believe their luck that they have a US president who is willing to surrender almost Putin so desires for a “wish you we here” postcard with Vlad from Helsinki. The Kremlin simply cannot believe it’s luck. 

Tim Ash is the senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management. This article was first published as an email to clients. The views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of BlueBay Asset Management.

Opinion

Dismiss