Bulgarias GDP growth decelerates to 0.8% in 2012.

By bne IntelliNews March 7, 2013
Bulgarias GDP, calculated in seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, expanded by 0.5% y/y in Q4 2012 [unchanged from the flash estimate, released in Feb], according to preliminary data of the national statistical institute. The annual growth decelerated from 0.6% y/y in Q3, 0.7% y/y in Q2 and 0.8% y/y in Q1. Compared to the previous quarter the economy posted zero growth in Q4. On the production side, the agricultural sector registered a 2.3% y/y growth in Q4. The services sector, which has the highest weight, expanded by 3.8% y/y after rising by only 1.4% in Q3, and the industry, posted a 3.7% annual growth in Q4. The construction sector marked the largest decline in Q4, shrinking by 12.6% y/y in Q4. Information and communication, finance and insurance, real estate activities also had a negative contribution to GVA. Adjustments marked 0.9% increase y/y, indicating slightly better indirect tax collection than a year earlier. Domestic demand, which was the major contributor to economic expansion in the boom years prior to the crisis, was the main growth driver in 2012 as well. It went up by 1% y/y in Q4 entirely on the back of private consumption (up 1.3% y/y) while collective consumption stayed at its year-ago level. It should be noted though that the annual growth rate of final consumption has been slowing throughout 2012, which we attribute to unemployment growth, low consumer confidence and rise in precautionary savings. At the same time, the contribution of the external sector was negative as exports decline steepened to 2.1% y/y in Q4. Imports also plunged into negative territory in Q4 after registering growth in the previous three quarters of the year. Investment in fixed capital rose by 1.5% y/y in Q4 after falling by 1.5% in Q3. GDP growth for the whole 2012 stands at 0.8% according to preliminary estimates, in line with the EC's projection and slightly below the projection of the IMF (1%). The growth figure is however lower than the 1.4% forecast of the government. GDP expansion slowed from 1.8% in 2011 mainly as a result of negative contribution of exports, which were a strong growth driver in 2011. Imports were the fastest growing component with a rate of 3.7%. Final consumption growth inched up to 1.8% from 1.5% in 2011. Gross capital formation was only 0.8% above its year-ago level. As expected, the best performing sectors last year were trade, transport and tourism (up 1.8%, significantly below the pre-crisis levels), agriculture (up 3.5%, first annual growth since 2008), industry (up 1.9%, significantly below 2011). The construction, telecommunications and information and the education sectors reported the steepest declines in 2012. Recent economic forecasts: The EC kept Bulgarias real GDP growth forecast at 1.4% in 2013. According to the Commission, domestic demand will be the main growth driver, supported by stable overall domestic economic environment, increase in real incomes and relatively strong public finances upholding consumer confidence. The EBRD sees 1.9% GDP growth in 2013 (the same projection as the one of the Bulgarian government) as fiscal and monetary buffers will withstand further shocks, but weak export demand will keep economic growth modest. The WB lowered Bulgaria's 2013 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.5% projected in June 2012.
Year GDP Final consumption Household consumption Gross capital formation Exports Imports
2007 106.4 107.2 109.0 111.8 106.1 109.6
2008 106.2 102.6 103.4 121.9 103.0 104.2
2009 94.5 92.7 92.5 82.4 88.8 79.0
2010 100.4 100.5 100.0 81.7 114.7 102.4
2011 101.8 101.5 101.5 93.5 112.3 108.8
2012* 100.8 101.8 102.5 100.8 99.6 103.7
Source: Statistics office, *preliminary data

Bulgarias GDP growth decelerates to 0.8% in 2012.

Related Articles

EC urges Bulgaria to comply with EU rules on free movement of capital.

The EC has sent a reasoned opinion to Bulgaria over failure to comply with EU rules on the free movement of capital, the EC said on its website. The privatisation act in Bulgaria introduces ... more

Govt seeks delay of antitrust rules violation procedure against Bulgaria.

Bulgaria will be seeking an extension of the court procedure filed by the EC against the country over irregularities found in the assignment of digital broadcast spectrum, transport minister ... more

Bulgarians hold EUR 100mn in deposits in Cyprus.

Bulgarian individuals and companies hold EUR 100mn in Cypriot banks according to ECB data, BTA reported quoting Reuters. The largest EU depositors in the crisis-hit country are Greece with EUR ... more

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:
  • Full access to the bne content daily news and features on the website
  • Newsletters direct to your mailbox
  • Print and digital subscription to the monthly bne magazine
  • Digital subscription to the weekly bne newspaper

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Register for free to read bne IntelliNews Magazine. You'll receive a free digital subscription.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

IntelliNews Pro offers daily news updates delivered to your inbox and in-depth data reports.
Get the emerging markets newswire that financial professionals trust.

"No day starts for my team without IntelliNews Pro" — UBS

Thank-you for requesting an IntelliNews Pro trial. Our team will be in contact with you shortly.

Dismiss