Bulgaria’s real GDP growth quickened to 2.9% y/y in the third quarter from an upwardly revised 2.6% y/y in the previous three months, a seasonally-adjusted flash estimate from the National Statistics Institute (NSI) showed on November 13. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy expanded by 0.7% in Q3, building on a 0.6% growth in Q2 and 0.9% in Q1.
Notably, the NSI has revised up substantially its seasonally-adjusted GDP growth estimates for the first and second quarter of this year - from 2.0% to 2.6% and from 2.2% to 2.6%, respectively. The data suggests that the country's full-year economic growth may exceed even the most optimistic forecasts, unless a deep contraction or another significant data revision comes up.
Last week, the European Commission (EC) improved its outlook for Bulgaria’s 2015 GDP growth to 1.7% from 1.0% expected in May, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) raised its forecast to 1.8% from 1.0%. A month earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it saw the country's economy expanding by 1.7% this year. The government's official forecast points to a 2.0% growth rate in 2015.
The latest NSI data shows that final consumption increased 1.1% y/y in Q3, reversing a 1.3% y/y decline in the previous quarter. The y/y contraction in gross fixed capital formation narrowed to 0.9%, from 1.2%. Annual growth of both exports and imports decelerated, to 2.6% from 5.2% and to 1.2% from 4.7%, respectively.
Nominal GDP amounted to BGN23.61bn (€12.07bn) in Q3. Final consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports accounted for 68.7%, 22.8% and 8.5% of the total. Exports and imports were equal to 67.4% and 58.9% of nominal GDP, respectively.
The statistics office will publish more detailed preliminary estimates of Q3 GDP on December 4.
|GDP, % y/y real, seasonally-adjusted|
|GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT||1.8||2.6||2.6||2.9|
|Gross fixed capital formation||-0.1||-1.9||-1.2||-0.9|
|Exports of goods and services||3.9||13.6||5.2||2.6|
|Imports of goods and services||5.5||6.6||4.7||1.2|
|Source: NSI flash estimate|
Mongolia has been listed on the European Union’s first ever tax haven blacklist among 17 countries including South Korea, Namibia, Panama, Trinidad & Tobago, Bahrain and ... more
Uzbekistan and South Korea have signed finance and investment deals worth $2.7bn, state-run UzDaily.uz news agency has reported. The deals were signed during Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s ... more
A listed British investment company linked to one of Iran’s largest investment banks failed to disclose that its focus is on the Islamic Republic, Euromonitor wrote on November 21. Iran’s ... more