Bulgaria’s Q3 GDP growth speeds to 2.9% y/y, Q1 and Q2 data revised up substantially

By bne IntelliNews November 13, 2015

Bulgaria’s real GDP growth quickened to 2.9% y/y in the third quarter from an upwardly revised 2.6% y/y in the previous three months, a seasonally-adjusted flash estimate from the National Statistics Institute (NSI) showed on November 13. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy expanded by 0.7% in Q3, building on a 0.6% growth in Q2 and 0.9% in Q1.

Notably, the NSI has revised up substantially its seasonally-adjusted GDP growth estimates for the first and second quarter of this year - from 2.0% to 2.6% and from 2.2% to 2.6%, respectively. The data suggests that the country's full-year economic growth may exceed even the most optimistic forecasts, unless a deep contraction or another significant data revision comes up.

Last week, the European Commission (EC) improved its outlook for Bulgaria’s 2015 GDP growth to 1.7% from 1.0% expected in May, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) raised its forecast to 1.8% from 1.0%. A month earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it saw the country's economy expanding by 1.7% this year. The government's official forecast points to a 2.0% growth rate in 2015.

The latest NSI data shows that final consumption increased 1.1% y/y in Q3, reversing a 1.3% y/y decline in the previous quarter. The y/y contraction in gross fixed capital formation narrowed to 0.9%, from 1.2%. Annual growth of both exports and imports decelerated, to 2.6% from 5.2% and to 1.2% from 4.7%, respectively.

Nominal GDP amounted to BGN23.61bn (€12.07bn) in Q3. Final consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports accounted for 68.7%, 22.8% and 8.5% of the total. Exports and imports were equal to 67.4% and 58.9% of nominal GDP, respectively.

The statistics office will publish more detailed preliminary estimates of Q3 GDP on December 4.

GDP, % y/y real, seasonally-adjusted        
  Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.9
Final consumption 1.1 -3.6 -1.3 1.1
Gross fixed capital formation -0.1 -1.9 -1.2 -0.9
Exports of goods and services 3.9 13.6 5.2 2.6
Imports of goods and services 5.5 6.6 4.7 1.2
Source: NSI flash estimate        

Related Articles

Ukraine places $3bn in 15-year Eurobonds at 7.375%

Ukraine has placed $3bn in 15-year Eurobonds at 7.375% per annum, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said during a meeting with international investors in New York on September 18. "Ukraine has ... more

Iran introduces its own rating system for banks

Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Valiollah Seif has announced that his institution is to launch a national rating system for banks, Iran Labour News Agency reported on September 17. ... more

October local elections to test Macedonia's fragile political stability, IMF warns

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on September 18 it expects the Macedonian economy to slow down to moderate growth of 1.9% in 2017 due to the prolonged political uncertainty. The fund ... more

Dismiss