Consumer inflation will likely reach 2.54% y/y in December of 2014, according to bankers from 200 branches surveyed by pollster TNS Polska. A month ago, they saw the December 2014 inflation at 2.39%.
In January of 2014, CPI inflation was 0.7% y/y, i.e. the same as in December of 2013. Bank economists expect the figure to inch up by the end of the year, but deem it will stay below the 1.5% mark (which is the lower end of the central bank's CPI target of 2.5% +/- 1pp) at least for the next few months.
Branch bankers also expect a slight weakening of the zloty against the euro and against the US dollar as compared to current FX market levels. They forecast the EUR/PLN rate at 4.18 at the end of 2014 (vs. 4.18 expected a month ago) vs. current 4.15 and the USD/PLN rate - at 3.08 (vs. 3.09, respectively) compared to current 3.02.
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