BAML: Turkey likely beneficiary from Iran’s nuclear deal

By bne IntelliNews July 21, 2015

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) sees Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as likely beneficiaries from Iranian foreign trade that could boom as a result of Tehran’s nuclear deal, Reuters reported.

Iran’s trade could increase to $200bn by 2020 from $80bn now, said BAML adding that higher imports are likely going to come from the machinery, vehicle, iron, steel, food and consumer goods sectors.

Turkish oil refiner Tupras could benefit in the short-to-medium term, while carmakers Tofas and Dogus Otomotiv could get a boost, Reuters quoted BAML analysts as saying.

With its population of nearly 80mn and $400bn economy, Iran is set to be the biggest economy to re-join the global trading and financial system since the break-up of the Soviet Union over 20 years ago, according to Reuters.

Turkey welcomed Iran’s nuclear deal with the western powers as the lifting of sanctions on Iran could contribute to the Turkish economy. The deal is likely to boost trade and investments between the two countries, wrote finance minister Mehmet Simsek on his twitter account on July 14.

Trade between Turkey and Iran stood at $13.7bn in 2014, down from $14.6bn in the previous year. Turkey’s exports to Iran were at $3.9bn last year, representing a 2.5% share in Turkey’s total exports, while its imports from Iran, mostly energy, amounted to $10.9bn, representing 4% of Turkey’s total imports. Iran imports mostly auto parts, textile fibres, and steel & iron from Turkey; in return it sells oil and natural gas.

Mehmet Buyukeksi, the head of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM), said he expected the trade volume with Iran to reach $16bn by the end of this year and $35bn in 2016. Turkey’s exports to Iran rose by 30% y/y to $1.93bn in January-June, according to data of TIM.

The deal will allow Iran to export more oil which means lower oil prices in the global markets. Turkey, which pays nearly $45bn-$50bn for energy imports, will benefit from cheaper oil.

Turkey's Trade Figures with Iran
  Exports to Iran (th $) Iran's Share in Turkey's Exports (%) y/y, % Imports from Iran (th $) Iran's Share in Turkey's Imports (%) y/y, %
2014  3,886,190  2.47  (7.31)  9,833,290  4.06  (5.30)
2013  4,192,511  2.76  (57.74)  10,383,217  4.13  (13.22)
2012  9,921,602  6.51  176.40  11,964,779  5.06  (3.99)
2011  3,589,635  2.66  17.92  12,461,532  5.17  63.00
2010  3,044,177  2.67  50.36  7,645,008  4.12  124.46
2009  2,024,546  1.98  (0.26)  3,405,986  2.42  (58.46)
2008  2,029,760  1.54  40.84  8,199,689  4.06  23.95
2007  1,441,190  1.34  35.08  6,615,394  3.89  17.57
2006  1,066,902  1.25  16.86  5,626,610  4.03  62.16
2005  912,940  1.24  12.29  3,469,706  2.97  76.84
source: tuik

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