As clock ticks down on Iran nuclear deal decision, Rouhani warns Trump he faces “historic regret”

As clock ticks down on Iran nuclear deal decision, Rouhani warns Trump he faces “historic regret”
Hardline strongholds such as Iranian second city Mashhad will be encouraged to attack centrist President Rouhani if the nuclear deal with the West collapses at the hands of Trump. / Iahsan at English Wikipedia.
By bne IntelliNews May 6, 2018

With less than one week to go before Donald Trump reaches his May 12 deadline for a decision on US participation in the nuclear deal, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned on May 6 that the US will face "historic regret" if Trump makes a move that wrecks the accord.

In remarks carried live on Iranian state television, Rouhani said: "If America leaves the nuclear deal, this will entail historic regret for it." He also warned that Iran had "a plan to counter any decision Trump may take and we will confront it".

There is a clear sense of gloom among the Iranian populace over Trump and Israel's aggression towards the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which all the signatories, except Washington—the UK, Germany, France, China and Russia—are more than content to continue with as, they say, Iran is in full compliance with the accord's requirements. The looming likely destruction of the JCPOA, which took 10 years to negotiate, has already impacted on the Iranian rial (IRR)—it is no longer legal to trade in the currency at free market rates, and if IRR rates against the dollar are are illicitly sought on the hidden free market then the customer finds they are the worst rates ever offered.

Adding to the sense of dismay among many in Iran is the likelihood that if the nuclear deal falls apart, the country's pragmatic, centrist President Rouhani will be vulnerable to the hardliners. Rouhani at the weekend again showed his relatively progressive credentials by speaking out against the conservative-run judiciary's banning of the hugely popular Telegram Messenger messaging app in Iran on the grounds of national security. He called the move the “opposite of democracy” and stressed it was not a government measure.

Strenuous efforts in the past two weeks made by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to persuade Trump not to withdraw the US from the nuclear deal, while simulaneously reintroducing crippling sanctions against the Iranians, have not achieved any noticeable breakthrough.

On May 6, Britain’s Foreign Minister Boris Johnson headed to Washington to make his own effort at convincing the Trump administation that ending US support for the JCPOA would be very much the wrong move. Johnson is expected to meet US Vice-President Mike Pence, National Security Adviser John Bolton and foreign policy leaders in Congress.

Trump contends that the accord contains “disastrous flaws”. He is unhappy that it does not address Iran's ballistic missile development programme—although Tehran points out it is not developing missiles to carry nuclear payloads—and objects to the deal not containing Iran when it comes to the Iranians projecting their political and military strength across the Middle East. He is also displeased that some provisions of the nuclear deal will expire in 2025.

The UK, which recently placed a new ambassador in Tehran, views Iran as offering economic oppotunities post-Brexit in oil, gas, solar and automotive sales. The British government has held several business meetings and signed large energy deals with Iran since it reopened its embassy in 2015 following an attack of the Ferdowsi Street compound in 2011 by the Basij militia.

Prior to his trip, speaking at a press briefing, Johnson said: “The UK, US and European partners are also united in our effort to tackle the kind of Iranian behaviour that makes the Middle East region less secure—its cyber activities, its support for groups like Hezbollah, and its dangerous missile programme, which is arming Houthi militias in Yemen."

Johnson also said the US and the UK were in “lockstep” in regards to Iran’s regional actions, but said the JCPOA is the best way to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

In a call with Theresa May on May 5, Trump "underscored his commitment to ensuring that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon".

Iran accuses Trump of breaking the terms of the JCPOA since he entered the White House by calling on traders and investors not to engage with Iran.

On May 3, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a video-message tweeted on his account: “Bluster or threats won’t get the US a new deal, particularly as it is not honouring the deal it has already made... If the US continues to violate the agreement, or if it withdraws altogether, we will exercise our right to respond in a manner of our choosing.” He accused the U.S. of “bullying” businesses into putting off investments in Iran.

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