Albanias economic growth speeds up to 3.8% in Q4 2011.

By bne IntelliNews April 6, 2012
Albanias gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.8% y/y in non-adjusted terms in the fourth quarter of 2011, speeding up from a 2.8% annual growth in the previous quarter, the state statistical institute, INSTAT, informed. The seasonally-adjusted figures showed a quarter-on-quarter stagnation in Q4 following a 2.4% q/q increase in Q3. The transport sector remained the key growth driver, increasing 15.4% y/y in the fourth quarter. The sector has been expanding at a double-digit pace over the past eight quarters. The trade, hotels and restaurants sector picked up 8.8% y/y. Among the other growth drivers, activity in construction and the post and communication sectors, increased by 1.2% y/y and 3.8% y/y respectively, as both reversed from a decline in the previous nine quarters. The growth in agriculture slowed down to 1.9% y/y in Q4. On the other hand, the industry contracted by 7.8% y/y after increasing by an annual 8.9% in Q3. The segment of other services increased by 5.4% y/y in Q4. Albanias GDP increased by 3.1% y/y in full-2011, with the growth easing from 3.9% y/y in 2010. The figure was broadly in line with the cabinets projection for a 3% growth. The government has also confirmed its 2012 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%. However, it still seems very optimistic when compared to the estimations of the IMF (1.5% y/y), the World Bank (2% y/y) and the EBRD (1.2% y/y). The three international institutions warned that the slower economic growth in the EU would have a negative impact on the local economy.
GDP breakdowns in constant prices (%, y/y)
Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11
Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing 2.3 3.4 3.3 2.8 1.9
Industry 22.8 15.7 -2.4 8.9 -7.8
Construction -9.4 5.4 -4.1 -0.8 1.2
Trade, hotels, restaurants 7.7 6.8 0.0 6.1 8.8
Transport 30.1 20.7 17.3 19.5 15.4
Post and communication -3.8 -3.4 -1.3 -1.9 3.8
Other services 5.0 -0.6 2.0 -3.3 5.4
Total Value Added 5.4 5.0 1.4 3.1 4.0
FISIM 3.6 10.3 9.4 8.9 8.5
GDP 5.5 4.8 1.1 2.8 3.8
Source: INSTAT

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