Albania's government has kept unchanged this year's GDP growth forecast at 2.1%, according to an updated economic and fiscal program for the 2015-2017 period, published by the finance ministry on February 4. The GDP growth is seen gradually accelerating to 3.3% in 2015, to 4.2% in 2016 and to 4.5% in 2017.
The government expects the fiscal balance to deteriorate further in 2014 with the deficit seen widening to 6.5% of GDP from 6.1% in 2013. According to the projection, the deficit should drop to 4.8% of GDP in 2015 and to 3.4% of GDP in 2016. The gap is set to fall below the EU's limit of 3% not earlier than 2017.
After going up by 8pps y/y to 70.5% of GDP in 2013, the public debt is expected to increase further by 1.6pps to equal to 72.1% of GDP in 2014.
The deficit on the current account is projected to decline in the mid-term as a result of the gradual reduction of the gap in the trade balance.
|Albania, key macroeconomic indicators|
|Real GDP growth||0.7||2.1||3.3||4.2||4.5|
|Budget balance / GDP||-6.1||-6.5||-4.8||-3.4||-1.3|
|Budget revenues / GDP||24.0||25.7||26||26.5||27.1|
|Budget expenditures / GDP||30.1||32.2||30.8||29.9||28.4|
|Public debt / GDP||70.5||72.1||71.7||69.2||65.6|
|Current account / GDP||-10||-8.3||-7.6||-7.3||-8.1|
|Trade balance / GDP||-16.5||-14.1||-12.7||-11.8||-12.1|
|Source: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework 2015-2076|
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