Albania's government has kept unchanged this year's GDP growth forecast at 2.1%, according to an updated economic and fiscal program for the 2015-2017 period, published by the finance ministry on February 4. The GDP growth is seen gradually accelerating to 3.3% in 2015, to 4.2% in 2016 and to 4.5% in 2017.
The government expects the fiscal balance to deteriorate further in 2014 with the deficit seen widening to 6.5% of GDP from 6.1% in 2013. According to the projection, the deficit should drop to 4.8% of GDP in 2015 and to 3.4% of GDP in 2016. The gap is set to fall below the EU's limit of 3% not earlier than 2017.
After going up by 8pps y/y to 70.5% of GDP in 2013, the public debt is expected to increase further by 1.6pps to equal to 72.1% of GDP in 2014.
The deficit on the current account is projected to decline in the mid-term as a result of the gradual reduction of the gap in the trade balance.
Albania, key macroeconomic indicators | |||||
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Real GDP growth | 0.7 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
Budget balance / GDP | -6.1 | -6.5 | -4.8 | -3.4 | -1.3 |
Budget revenues / GDP | 24.0 | 25.7 | 26 | 26.5 | 27.1 |
Budget expenditures / GDP | 30.1 | 32.2 | 30.8 | 29.9 | 28.4 |
Public debt / GDP | 70.5 | 72.1 | 71.7 | 69.2 | 65.6 |
Current account / GDP | -10 | -8.3 | -7.6 | -7.3 | -8.1 |
Trade balance / GDP | -16.5 | -14.1 | -12.7 | -11.8 | -12.1 |
Source: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework 2015-2076 |
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