Albanian government keeps 2014 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.1%.

By bne IntelliNews February 5, 2014

Albania's government has kept unchanged this year's GDP growth forecast at 2.1%, according to an updated economic and fiscal program for the 2015-2017 period, published by the finance ministry on February 4. The GDP growth is seen gradually accelerating to 3.3% in 2015, to 4.2% in 2016 and to 4.5% in 2017.

The government expects the fiscal balance to deteriorate further in 2014 with the deficit seen widening to 6.5% of GDP from 6.1% in 2013. According to the projection, the deficit should drop to 4.8% of GDP in 2015 and to 3.4% of GDP in 2016. The gap is set to fall below the EU's limit of 3% not earlier than 2017.

After going up by 8pps y/y to 70.5% of GDP in 2013, the public debt is expected to increase further by 1.6pps to equal to 72.1% of GDP in 2014.

The deficit on the current account is projected to decline in the mid-term as a result of the gradual reduction of the gap in the trade balance.

Albania, key macroeconomic indicators
  2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real GDP growth 0.7 2.1 3.3 4.2 4.5
Budget balance / GDP -6.1 -6.5 -4.8 -3.4 -1.3
Budget revenues / GDP 24.0 25.7 26 26.5 27.1
Budget expenditures / GDP 30.1 32.2 30.8 29.9 28.4
Public debt / GDP 70.5 72.1 71.7 69.2 65.6
Current account / GDP -10 -8.3 -7.6 -7.3 -8.1
Trade balance / GDP -16.5 -14.1 -12.7 -11.8 -12.1
Source: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework 2015-2076

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