Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital expects real retail sales will maintain a growth rate of 7-8% year-on-year in 2018, while private consumption will be the major contributor to economic growth.
According to official data, retail sales in real terms increased by 7% y/y in January-April compared to 7.6% y/y growth in January-March.
In January-April, retail sales grew 5.8% y/y. Regionally, the highest growth occurred in the Vinnytsia (11.1% y/y growth), Zakarpattia (9.2% y/y) and Sumy (8.9% y/y) regions, while Rivne (2.6% y/y), Chernivtsi (3.3% y/y) and Zaporizhia (3.5% y/y) were the slowest.
"We don’t expect further slowing in retail sales this year," Concorde's Evgeniya Akhtyrko wrote n a note on May 22. "Amid the continuing growth of real disposable income, the consumption by Ukrainians will continue to grow at least to compensate their thrifty consumer behaviour during the economic collapse in 2014-15."
The adjusted annual growth in April owes to production expanding 14% y/y in the most-weighted manufacturing segment, compared to a growth of 7% y/y the preceding month.
The pick-up owes to the calendar effect, with sales spiking because of Easter but also to Polish households’ general inclination towards increased consumption, driven by the good situation on the labour market – low unemployment and growing wages.
Russia's industrial output growth in April 2019 jumped to 4.9% year-on-year after 1.2% growth in March, according to the latest data by Rosstat statistics agency. Russia on track to finish the year with 2.3% industrial production growth
The headline figure attests to the Polish industrial sector’s stubbornness to give in to negative trends in the external environment, especially the slowdown of activity in Germany, Poland's largest trading partner.
Retail trade increased 9.1% y/y in real terms in April, slightly accelerating from 8.9% y/y in March