Poland’s industrial production expanded 9.8% year on year in constant prices in September (chart), after growing 10.9% y/y the preceding month, unadjusted data from the statistical office GUS showed on October 20.

The expansion came in above the consensus line and offered a positive surprise amidst worries of a looming economic slowdown due to the central bank’s fight with inflation and the ongoing energy crisis.

A recovery in automotive production and oil refining drove the September increase, offsetting a slowdown in mining, energy, and food production, bank PKO BP notes.

“The data show that Poland’s industrial sector remains resilient to external shocks – so far,” PKO BP said in a comment.

Seasonally adjusted, output growth came in at 10.3% y/y in September following a gain of 11.2% y/y the preceding month. 

In unadjusted monthly terms, industrial production grew 9.8% after growing 0.7% m/m in May, GUS also said. Adjusted month-on-month expansion came in at 0.3%, easing from a gain of 0.7% m/m in August. 

Broken down by the main segments and in unadjusted terms, production grew 11% y/y in September in manufacturing, a slight ease from August’s expansion of +11.2% y/y. 

Output in the utility sector slid 3.7% y/y in September after a revised expansion of 5% y/y the preceding month. 

In water supply and waste management, there was a growth of 2.8% y/y in the ninth month, which followed a gain of 8.2% y/y in August.

Production also increased 9.2% y/y in September in mining and quarrying, slowing down considerably from revised growth of +21.8% y/y the preceding month, GUS data also showed.

Overall, production rose in 27 out of 34 industrial segments in September in y/y terms, down from 30 in August. The fastest sectorial expansion took place in the production of cars, trailers and semi-trailers as well as in machinery and equipment, and transport equipment. Output contracted the most in the production of chemicals and furniture.

Industrial production data do not change much in the outlook for Poland’s monetary policy, with the National Bank of Poland now walking a tightrope between measures to quell inflation and the imperative to avoid a sharp decline in economic growth and employment.

Poland's GDP expansion halved to 4.7% y/y in Q2 while falling 2.3% in q/q terms. Third quarter flash GDP data are due in mid-November.