Poland's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.1 in November from 48.8 the preceding month, marking the highest reading since May, though still below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction, the economic intelligence company S&P Global said on December 1. (chart)

PMI is a composite of indicators for new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchases. In November, the rise of the index reflected “slower falls in output and employment and a greater lengthening in suppliers' delivery times. These were partly offset by faster declines in new orders and stocks of purchases,” S&P Global said.

"Although remaining in negative territory in November, the PMI continued to move in the right direction. The headline figure rose for the fifth successive month and signalled that overall growth could return to the Polish manufacturing sector by the end of the year,” Trevor Balchin, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.

New orders fell for an eighth straight month in November, with the pace of decline edging up but remaining mild. Export sales rose slightly, marking the first increase since March. Output was close to stable, and the latest drop was the smallest in the seven-month downturn. 

Polish manufacturers linked lower production to weaker demand, fewer orders and a broader economic slowdown, while some cited contract endings and full warehouses. Others reported higher output thanks to new customers, more staff, relocations and clearing backlogs.

Shrinking demand led to another fall in outstanding work, which declined at the fastest rate in four months. Weak capacity pressure continued to weigh on hiring, and factory jobs fell for a seventh month, though at a slower pace.

Manufacturers increased purchasing again in November, but only marginally, and inventories of inputs fell for an eighth month. Input costs rose for the first time in four months, driven mainly by higher prices for wood products, agricultural goods, copper and cellulose. The overall increase was modest, and selling prices were broadly unchanged due to strong competition.

Polish analysts say the outlook for Polish manufacturing is better than the November PMI reading suggests.

“Hard data from the statistical office indicate a strong rebound in recent months across several sectors, especially in capital goods production,” PKO BP said in a note.

“Further improvement in the coming months should be supported by spending from the National Recovery Plan, public infrastructure investment and better conditions among Poland’s trading partners,” PKO BP also said.

Poland’s industrial production surged 3.2% year on year in October, according to latest available real data, released by the statistical office GUS on November 24. The result, while marking a sharp slowdown from the 7.4% growth recorded the preceding month, was still well above the consensus, which expected a gain of just 1.8% y/y

Meanwhile, producer prices fell 2.2% y/y in October, GUS also said last month. The reading followed the August decline of -1.4% y/y, with the PPI deflation, which began in mid-2023, now expected to persist throughout 2025 and possibly into early 2026.