Lukashenko to impose sanctions on Lithuania and Poland as the Belarusian women get ready to march in protest

Lukashenko to impose sanctions on Lithuania and Poland as the Belarusian women get ready to march in protest
Two rallies are planned for the weekend: the regular mass rally on Sunday, but on Saturday there will be a women only rally in solidarity. / wiki
By Ben Aris in Berlin, Linas Jegelevicius in Vilnius August 28, 2020

Belarus' self-appointed president Alexander Lukashenko threatened to impose sanctions on Lithuania and Poland and block the transit of goods in reprisal for sanctions the two countries have already imposed on him and some two dozen other officials in Belarus.

The diplomatic barb trading came as Russian soldiers arrived in Belarus for an annual military competition the day after Russian President Vladimir Putin was on television promising to send Lukashenko troops “if necessary” and considerably bolstering Lukashenko's position, as bne IntelliNews argued in its report yesterday.

The incumbent’s fortunes have improved significantly in the last few days as Putin has taken Russia’s rhetoric up a level and the Kremlin is clearly supporting the Lukashenko regime.

However, the opposition is intending to strike back this weekend with not one, but two rallies: it hopes to repeat the March of the New Belarus demonstration on August 23 that attracted at least quarter of a million participants on Sunday, but on Saturday it will hold a separate female only rally, to emphasise the leading role women have played in Belarus’ awaking.

Sanctions

Lukashenko struck out at the governments of Lithuania and Poland by threatening to close the borders to their goods and impose sanctions on them both.

The two governments were the first of the EU countries to publicly condemn the violence Lukashenko unleashed on the population after stealing the presidential election on August 9. They have also imposed personal sanctions on over 100 Belarusian officials and make Lukashenko persona non grata. In addition Lithuania is hosting former English teacher and nominal victor in Belarus’ presidential election Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who continues to agitate for the opposition from her base in Vilnius.

“Now we’ll show [Poles and Lithuanians] what sanctions are!” said Lukashenko in televised remarks on August 28 as cited by BelTA. “If they were still [travelling] to China and Russia through us, now they will fly or trade products on which Russia has imposed an embargo through the Baltic or the Black Sea ... We will show them what sanctions are," Lukashenko said.

A significant amount of goods pass through Belarus on their way to the giant Russian consumer markets and it is an important transit country for both Lithuanian and Polish goods, in addition to goods originating in other EU countries. More recently trade has begun to flow from China to Europe by train, also passing through Belarus, which the Chinese see as a bridgehead into the entire European market.

"They got drunk and forgot what Belarus is. And they thought that they could tilt us, scare us with tanks, rockets ... Let's see who else scares whom. We will show them what sanctions are," the Belarusian leader said.

Lithuania is preparing to route Ukraine-bound trucks through eastern Poland if traffic disruptions start in Belarus, Yaroslav Narkevich, Lithuania’s Minister of Transport and Communications, told Russian Railways Partner site.

“We intend to discuss with Poland the option of returning our carriers through Poland, bypassing Belarus,” he said. “So far there is no need to redirect the flow of trucks, but we are ready for this.”

Lukashenko says he is ready to cut shipping ties. “I instructed the government to make a proposal to reorient all trade flows from Lithuanian ports to others. So we’ll see how they will live. 30% of the Lithuanian budget is formed by our cargo flows through Lithuania. What else is needed?” Lukashenko said.

On the other hand, a large share of Belarusian exports transit via Lithuania by rail and through the port of Klaipeda. Lithuania’s state-owned railway company, Lietuvos Gelezinkeliai, also carries Belarusian imports.

The Belarusian fertiliser manufacturer Belaruskali, which co-owns the company Birių Krovinių Terminalas (Bulk Cargo Terminal, or BKT) jointly with a Lithuanian businessman, is a key player in the Lithuanian seaport. In 2018, BKT handled 10.098mn tonnes of fertilisers, up 21.6% from 2017, and 98% of the amount came from Belaruskali.

Lithuania, together with Poland and the other Baltic states, has been a staunch advocate for EU-wide action against Lukashenko’s regime.

Weighing in on Lukashenko’s threat, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius said on August 28 that Lukashenko was going “va banque”, a gambling term used to describe a risky ‘all in’ move.

"It's a continuation of all his other threats. Naturally, he is going va banque and is using all methods he knows…Some of his actions are inadequate but it's hard to evaluate something here, it's a natural defensive behavior to stay in this position, ignoring both the internal situation and pressure from the international community,” the minister said.

Lithuania’s sanctions on Belarus will be confirmed following consultations with Latvia and Estonia. The national sanctions have no financial levers, and only include entry bans for officials responsible for vote-rigging and violence against protesters in Belarus.

Trade in the region is slowly being disrupted. Ukraine took umbrage at Lukashenko’s accustations of meddling in domestic affairs and promoting the protests.

Ukraine has already “tightened control” at the Ukraine-Belarus border crossings in the wake of Lukashenko’s charges that Ukraine is trying to destabilise his regime. “We have tightened control at the border with Belarus, since the situation in this country is quite turbulent,” Border Guard spokesman Andriy Demchenko told RBK-Ukraine.

Ukraine is Belarus’ second largest trading partner, after Russia, Dmitry Chervyakov, a consultant with Berlin Economics, tells the Kyiv Post. Last year, Belarus exported $4.1bn in goods to Ukraine and imported $1.7bn. Ukraine bought 4mn tonnes of diesel and bitumen from Belarus for $2.4bn and fertilisers for $300mn, largely from Belaruskali. Many of Belarus’ imports from Ukraine are transshipped to Russia to skirt bilateral Russia-Ukraine trade bans.

Lukashenko also dismissed the sanction imposed on him and his colleagues as immaterial. He stressed that Belarus has already lived with sanctions for years with no ill affect. "We survived. We will survive now," he said.

Russian troops on exercise

Russian and Belarusian paratroopers held a joint exercises in the Brest region on August 28, Interfax reports.

The soldiers jointly practiced an assault on a building at the Brestsky training ground in Belarus, the Russian defence ministry said as cited by the newswire. The exercise was the first stage of the International Army Competition Polar Star.

"Storming the building is one of the most difficult exercises,” the ministry said in a statement.

Russian intelligence officers parachuted off from a Mi-8 MTV-5 helicopter and carried out an assault, freeing hostages and clearing the captured building. The military department clarified that the exercise was performed in pouring rain and in a strong gusty wind.

The international stage of the Polar Star competition is held in Belarus from August 23 to September 5, Russia is represented in the competition by paratroopers of the Guards Airborne Forces from the Moscow region.

A routine meeting of Russian and Belarusian soldiers, this year the competition has special significance. However, opposition leaders downplayed Putin’s comments on military support for Lukashenko and continue to remain very careful to keep the door open for the Kremlin.

Maria Kolesnikova, one of the trio of women that campaigned against Lukashenko and the only one still in Belarus, told RBC that she does not consider Putin's statement on the formation of a reserve of security officials in Russia and the possibility of their use in a neighbouring country as a threat.

“Now it has become obvious to everyone that the current president of Belarus is so weak and so unable to hear what his own people want, that he is ready to turn to neighbouring states for help. Although all this time it was he who manipulated the fact that it was we who were supposedly addressing someone,” said Kolesnikova, a member of the newly established Coordinating Council.

Kolesnikova repeated that she nor anyone in the Coordinating Council have ever asked for financial or any other help from EU representatives and are not planning to do so.

However, Putin clearly threatened to intervene militarily if the opposition tried to use force to oust Lukashenko. Putin’s comments will effectively lock in the stalemate that has developed between the Belarusian people and Lukashenko.

“We also agreed that it will not be used until the situation gets out of control, when extremist elements – I want to emphasise this – extremist elements, hiding behind political slogans, cross certain [red] lines. And we are not just talking about starting to rob; when they start to set fire to cars, houses, banks; [when they] try to seize administrative buildings and so on, ” Putin said.

According to him, the Kremlin proceeds from the assumption that the problems in Belarus will be resolved peacefully. “But to be objective, I think that the law enforcement agencies of Belarus are behaving with restraint, no matter what,” Putin added in remarks also aimed at Lukashenko’s security forces and designed to reassure them and bolster their loyalty to the president.

While it appears that Lukashenko has regained the initiative thanks to Putin’s backing, the opposition remain defiant and have organised two marches for the weekend.

What has become the regular March for Peace and Independence will begin at 2pm on Independence Square this Sunday, but on Saturday there will be the Female Grand March of Solidarity that starts at 4pm on Pieramohi Square in Minsk.

Women have played a key role in the Belarusian uprising. More recently, as the arrests have restarted with an estimated 200 protesters detained on August 27, women have been forming a cordon between the men and the police as on the whole the police have only been arresting the men.

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