The goal of Kyrgyzstan’s November 30 parliamentary snap election appears to be to give President Sadyr Japarov “the opportunity to subjugate parliament once and for all before running for a second term, and to clear the political field of opponents”, according to a commentary by a freelance journalist and analyst who writes for think tank Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Galiya Ibragimova recounts how in 2021, then new president Japarov rewrote the constitution, ending the small republic’s short-lived parliamentary-presidential form of government and restoring a presidential system.

Japarov, a populist-nationalist who this week gave Russian leader Vladimir Putin a grandiose reception for a state visit while also detaining opponents accused of plotting a coup, is widely viewed as increasingly authoritarian. He has also accused Western capitals that have imposed sanctions on Kyrgyz banks and companies for helping Moscow to dodge sanctions of “interference” in his country’s internal affairs.

Subsequent to the rewriting of the country of 7.4mn’s constitution, as described by Ibragimova, there “followed systemic restrictions on freedom of speech: independent media outlets were shut down, and editorial offices like Kloop and Temirov Live, which specialized in anti-corruption investigations, came under intense pressure from the authorities, including through the arrest of journalists and the designation of media outlets as ‘extremist.’”

“Japarov also initiated judicial reform that increased the courts’ dependence on the executive branch: by controlling the rotation of judges, the president gained the ability to appoint people loyal to him. Moreover, if court decisions are deemed to contravene the ‘morality and ethics of Kyrgyz society,’ they can simply be ignored,” added the analyst.

The last parliament voluntarily dissolved itself in September. A few months prior to that, Japarov brought in a reform that divided the country into 30 constituencies. Each is to elect three deputies. Party lists have been abolished. Candidates can now only put their names forward in three-member constituencies.

Wrote Ibragimova: “In practice, this should help the president strengthen his control over parliament. It’s much easier to keep tabs on candidates via districts rather than national party lists, which insufficiently loyal people have previously been known to infiltrate. The new system effectively eliminates the possibility of random or opposition figures entering parliament.

“To be on the safe side, disloyal parties were in any case purged before the elections. Last fall, the leaders of the Social Democratic Party associated with former president Almazbek Atambayev—arguably the last remaining opposition force—were arrested on charges of vote-buying. Then, just days before the [upcoming] election, Atambayev’s son Kadyrbek—another of the party’s leaders—was arrested on suspicion of attempting a coup.”

Does "people's general" Tashiyev have his eye on the throne? (Credit: Official handout).

Ibragimova also reflected on growing unease between the country’s two most powerful men, Japarov and top national security official Kamchybek Tashiyev, a figure who claims to have eliminated all organised crime groups in the country and to whom Japarov is indebted for much of his rise to the presidency.

They are unspoken rivals, who started their political careers in nationalist movements and served in the government under former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev before, in the 2010s, they took part in opposition movements together.

Tashiyev is unofficially dubbed the “people’s general”. Publicly he supports Japarov and his expected bid to win a second presidential term in an election scheduled for January 2027.

“At the same time,” observed Ibragimova, “he is rapidly expanding his own authority, which is now starting to exceed that of the president at times. In Kyrgyz politics, which is so personalized, this has inevitably sparked rumors that the country’s top security official may have presidential ambitions of his own, and even speculation that the upcoming parliamentary elections could be a rehearsal for a power struggle between Japarov and Tashiyev.”

Japarov, she underlined, is using electoral reform to try to bring more of his own people into parliament, while pointing out: “Since the abolition of party lists, the campaign has fragmented into numerous small constituencies, with nearly five hundred candidates running mostly without coherent platforms or clear political affiliations. In this situation, it’s difficult to understand where the candidates’ loyalties lie and what they will do if they win.”