Ukraine’s retail trade expanded by 8.2% y/y in real terms in May, decelerating from 9.1% y/y in April, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on June 20.
On a month-to-month basis, retail sales rose 1.1% in real terms.
In 5M19, retail trade increased 9.6% in real terms (vs. 5.0% y/y in 5M18). Regionally, the highest retail growth in 5M19 occurred in the Vinnytsia (18.3% y/y), Cherkasy (15.6% y/y) and Odesa (15.2% y/y) regions. It was slowest in the Chernihiv (0.5% y/y), Chernivtsi (0.8% y/y) and Zakarpattia (2.1% y/y) regions.
“Real retail continued to advance in May, driven by personal income growth (mostly wages). We expect real retail trade to increase 6-7% y/y in 2019 (vs. 5.8% y/y in 2018),” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note.
Slowdown mainly related to sales of non-durable goods, while continued expansion, albeit at a slower pace, is generally in line with Poles’ robust consumer spending driven by low unemployment and growing wages.
The unemployment rate in Slovakia was 5.04% in September, up by 0.07 percentage points (pp) month on month, according to the data from the Labour, Social Affairs and Family Centre (UPSVR) published on October 18.
Reading indicates 4.1% y/y GDP growth in third quarter, mainly on private consumption, while weaker construction performance suggests diminished contribution from investments, ING says.
Polish core inflation came in at 2.4% y/y in September, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on October 16.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut Russia’s growth forecast for the third time this year to 1.1% from the previous 1.6%, the fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook update for October 2019. The GDP growth is expected to recover to 1.9%