Turkey
Turkish business presses Erdogan to beef up COVID-19 economic support and consider strict lockdown
With academics warning Turkey may face pandemic “catastrophe”, local corporate titans suggest it might be better for country to bite bullet and go for short, sharp shock rather than long, drawn-out battle.
Small countries in Balkans and South Caucasus most exposed to tourism industry collapse
No one knows if there will be a summer tourism season at all in 2020, which is bad news for the countries that generate around a quarter of their GDP from the sector.
IIF forecasts a contraction of -1.4% in CEE, -1.3% in Russia, but Turkish growth remains in the black in 2020
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) released updated forecasts for economic growth this year for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries that show a sharp slowdown in 2020 and all except Turkey will return negative results.
Is the pace of outflows from EMs starting to slow?
Equity and bond markets have been rocked by record volumes of outflows since the end of February in one of the biggest sell offs ever, but the pace of selling seems to be slowing in the last few days, said the Institute of International Finance (IIF)
Latest data show no progress resolving Turkish real sector’s foreign debt woe
Burden seen as Turkey’s biggest headache in wake of currency crisis. Figures come amid pandemic as analysts say idea EMs will face ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows is starting to gain traction.
Capital Economics slashes CEE growth forecasts for 2020 to -2% y/y
Economic consultancy Capital Economics has slashed its growth forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to a 2% y/y contractions from the previous 2.3% expansion in 2020, as a result of the coronavirus.
Harvard academic claims coronavirus situation “out of control” in Turkey
“If the necessary measures are not taken, Turkey will be like Italy or Spain, where the daily death toll is in the hundreds,” says Turkish professor.
TURKEY INSIGHT: How bad a pandemic hit to GDP must country brace for?
Finance minister accused of just “dropping in from outer space” for sticking to his targets. Lira continues to crumble as analysts slash growth forecasts.
Crippling pandemic will cause Q2 GDP collapse of 17.2% in Turkey says JPMorgan
Investment bank concludes country can expect worst annualised growth shrinkage of any emerging market. But finance minister rejects idea that economic carnage is on horizon.
ISTANBUL BLOG: There may be no stopping the coronavirus from snowballing in Turkey
Science Council member says country has lost its chance to be a “Singapore” or a “Hong Kong” and needs to spend all its available energy on not becoming an “Italy”.
Turkey introduces TRY100bn package to help economy hit by virus
Debt payments postponed, tax burdens cut and aviation and tourism supported. On same day, Toyota Turkey announces production suspension.
Turkey brings in surprise 100bp rate cut and additional cheaper liquidity in coronavirus fight
Analyst sees set of announced measures as “stronger than” a cut in borrowing costs. Lira, however, is at its weakest since currency crisis and strategists see it as set to come under even more pressure.
Turkey detains 19 for “unfounded and provocative” comments over officials’ coronavirus response
Country was last major economy to report an infection. Veracity of its testing and declaring of scale of pandemic’s impact on Turks under scrutiny.
Number of coronavirus cases in Turkish metropolis “has exploded”
Medical Association head makes claim as Erdogan administration remains under pressure to explain how Turkey can have so few recorded infections.
EBRD makes €1bn available as emergency measure to fight coronavirus impact
The EBRD has unveiled an emergency €1bn “Solidarity Package” to help companies deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
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Erdogan may be world’s most 'insulted' leader
Justice ministry figures show that between 2014 and 2018 some 17,500 people were sued for insulting strongman. Hundreds of minors among those prosecuted.
US surgeon casts doubt on testing kits behind Turkey’s ‘one coronavirus case’ claim
All hospitals nationwide send samples to centralised testing facility in Ankara. Lack of identified infections “provoked suspicion” because there is no way to challenge the result, doctor and academic says.
TURKEY INSIGHT: Ankara scurries to tap €1.3bn from local lenders as lira tanks amid “The COVID-19 Sudden Stop”
Not long off the canvas after suffering a near knockout in its currency crisis, country could find itself out of ammo in the face of a Global Financial Crisis II.
Babacan’s party to challenge Erdogan dubbed “Cure” or “Remedy”
At launch ex-ally of Turkish president says: “This country’s people have been made very sad in the last years … We will not allow our nation to have more sadness.”
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TURKEY INSIGHT: In global market turmoil “usual suspects” seen facing possible severe balance of payments strains
Emerging market bond funds suffering “disastrous” performance numbers. Fear of redemptions and forced selling. EM sovereign dollar bond spreads wider by 50-100bp since start of month.