Despite Turkey’s economic strife, local lenders’ spring loan refinancing season is progressing undeterred. But Libor and Euribor rates have almost doubled compared to a year ago.
Assessing economic flashpoints on horizon, analyst says external debts equal to around 24% of Turkey’s GDP need to be serviced over the next 12 months, leaving the lira vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion.
Typically praised, the Treasury's housekeeping is going to pot amid country's economic turmoil.
Calendar-adjusted index in positive territory. Fresh pre-election stimulus on the cards. Economy may have grown in Q1 but double-dip recession not ruled out. Istanbul revote impact may hinge on battle for Kurdish vote.
100% import tariffs on goods from Serbia and Bosnia have pushed consumer prices up in Kosovo, but politicians’ claims they would help local producers were never realised, think tank GAP finds.
More market jitters on report that Treasury may tap central bank reserves to borrow 40bn lira as government budget deficit is deeper than expected. OMFIF op-ed says Erdogan’s mishandling of currency crisis heightens probability of Ankara default.
Public lenders reportedly sold $1bn on May 9 and overnight to curb latest bout of depreciation. Officials have been up to no good for months, but it’s gone unreported.
Yields on Turkish global bonds jumped as political tensions over the upcoming re-run of the mayoral election in Istanbul gave investors the jitters. Raiffeisen International analysts see the central bank as in danger of losing control of the market.
Erdogan party hacks nevertheless ask why markets give this particular authoritarian regime such a hard time. Answer may be its lack of technocrats with freedom to run macro policy. Lickspittles get you nowhere.
All-in cost will be Libor+250bp and Euribor+240bp.
SMEs are under-represented in international trade and their contribution to value added remains low, the latest SME Policy Index finds.
President resorts to what some will see as Orwellian doublespeak, claiming step necessary “to strengthen democracy”. Some opponents talk of his “civilian coup”. Reports say predecessor planning new party.
Annulling of Istanbul election result that put a chink in Erdogan’s armour knocks an already ensnared economy and ushers in some dark political scenarios.
Election board cites “irregularities” in scheduling a June 23 rerun. Markets respond to the decision by taking it out on the already battered lira.
Mired in a deep recession, economy remains vulnerable to global investor sentiment. External financial requirement stands at $173bn in 2019, down from $212bn in 2018.
Brussels “urgently” calls on Ankara to show restraint. Washington “deeply concerned” by “highly provocative” step. Dispute adds to strain on lira. Day sees it sink past six to the dollar.
Deutsche sees government lira bonds as “cheap” for first time this year. Analyst, meanwhile, accuses Turkey’s central bank of “monetary hokey-cokey” that diminishes “already depleted reserves of credibility further”.
Turkey proceeding with plan to transfer some of the banking sector’s problem loans to off-balance-sheet funds.
Turkey tells US it is not possible for it to quickly diversify to alternative supplies. India adopts a softer position, China keeps cards close to chest.
Data reinforces perception that any recovery from recession will be slow-going. Meanwhile, word breaks of possible summer Trump visit to Ankara.