Garanti latest Turkish bank to renew syndicated loan at higher costs, lower roll-over ratio

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 17, 2019

Despite Turkey’s economic strife, local lenders’ spring loan refinancing season is progressing undeterred. But Libor and Euribor rates have almost doubled compared to a year ago.

Turkish private sector’s 1-yr FX loan repayment obligations fall 3% m/m to $60.4 bn in March

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 16, 2019

Assessing economic flashpoints on horizon, analyst says external debts equal to around 24% of Turkey’s GDP need to be serviced over the next 12 months, leaving the lira vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion.

Turkey’s central government budget deficit soars 135% y/y in Jan-April

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 15, 2019

Typically praised, the Treasury's housekeeping is going to pot amid country's economic turmoil.

Turkish industrial production contracts for 7th straight month

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 14, 2019

Calendar-adjusted index in positive territory. Fresh pre-election stimulus on the cards. Economy may have grown in Q1 but double-dip recession not ruled out. Istanbul revote impact may hinge on battle for Kurdish vote.

Slovenia, Israel and Turkey benefit from Kosovo’s politically motivated import tariffs

Valentina Dimitrievska in Skopje May 13, 2019

100% import tariffs on goods from Serbia and Bosnia have pushed consumer prices up in Kosovo, but politicians’ claims they would help local producers were never realised, think tank GAP finds.

Turkey’s current account gap contracts 88% y/y in Q1 as lira crisis crushes imports

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 13, 2019

More market jitters on report that Treasury may tap central bank reserves to borrow 40bn lira as government budget deficit is deeper than expected. OMFIF op-ed says Erdogan’s mishandling of currency crisis heightens probability of Ankara default.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Claims over officials' lira manipulation via state banks hit international fan

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 10, 2019

Public lenders reportedly sold $1bn on May 9 and overnight to curb latest bout of depreciation. Officials have been up to no good for months, but it’s gone unreported.

Turkish bond yields rise as analysts worry central bank is close to losing control of the market

Ben Aris in Berlin May 9, 2019

Yields on Turkish global bonds jumped as political tensions over the upcoming re-run of the mayoral election in Istanbul gave investors the jitters. Raiffeisen International analysts see the central bank as in danger of losing control of the market.

ISTANBUL BLOG: Turkey mired in ‘death of democracy’ outrage—but global lenders are unfazed

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 9, 2019

Erdogan party hacks nevertheless ask why markets give this particular authoritarian regime such a hard time. Answer may be its lack of technocrats with freedom to run macro policy. Lickspittles get you nowhere.

Turkey’s Yapi Kredi Bank obtains 367-day $1bn syndicated loan

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 8, 2019

All-in cost will be Libor+250bp and Euribor+240bp.

Environment for SMEs improved in Western Balkans, Turkey but potential still unexploited

bne IntelliNews May 7, 2019

SMEs are under-represented in international trade and their contribution to value added remains low, the latest SME Policy Index finds.

Erdogan faces onslaught of criticism from Europe over election rerun—but US remains silent

bne IntelliNews May 7, 2019

President resorts to what some will see as Orwellian doublespeak, claiming step necessary “to strengthen democracy”. Some opponents talk of his “civilian coup”. Reports say predecessor planning new party.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Democracy? That died long ago. Economic recovery? Don’t bet the farm on it

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 7, 2019

Annulling of Istanbul election result that put a chink in Erdogan’s armour knocks an already ensnared economy and ushers in some dark political scenarios.

ANALYSIS: Officials scrub out Erdogan’s Istanbul defeat. Is Turkey now a “plain dictatorship”?

bne IntelliNews May 6, 2019

Election board cites “irregularities” in scheduling a June 23 rerun. Markets respond to the decision by taking it out on the already battered lira.

Fitch affirms Turkey at BB with a Negative Outlook

bne IntelliNews May 6, 2019

Mired in a deep recession, economy remains vulnerable to global investor sentiment. External financial requirement stands at $173bn in 2019, down from $212bn in 2018.

EU and US warn Turkey against Cyprus offshore drilling

bne IntelliNews May 6, 2019

Brussels “urgently” calls on Ankara to show restraint. Washington “deeply concerned” by “highly provocative” step. Dispute adds to strain on lira. Day sees it sink past six to the dollar.

Surprise as Turkish inflation edges down amid growing cost pressures

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 4, 2019

Deutsche sees government lira bonds as “cheap” for first time this year. Analyst, meanwhile, accuses Turkey’s central bank of “monetary hokey-cokey” that diminishes “already depleted reserves of credibility further”.

$12-13bn of Turkish energy sector loans need restructuring: Garanti Bank deputy

bne IntelliNews May 2, 2019

Turkey proceeding with plan to transfer some of the banking sector’s problem loans to off-balance-sheet funds.

Saudis rescue distressed Iranian oil tanker just as US move versus Iran’s crude kicks in

bne IntelliNews May 2, 2019

Turkey tells US it is not possible for it to quickly diversify to alternative supplies. India adopts a softer position, China keeps cards close to chest.

Turkey’s manufacturing PMI falls—temporary support from pre-election stimuli flags

Akin Nazli in Belgrade May 2, 2019

Data reinforces perception that any recovery from recession will be slow-going. Meanwhile, word breaks of possible summer Trump visit to Ankara.