With academics warning Turkey may face pandemic “catastrophe”, local corporate titans suggest it might be better for country to bite bullet and go for short, sharp shock rather than long, drawn-out battle.
No one knows if there will be a summer tourism season at all in 2020, which is bad news for the countries that generate around a quarter of their GDP from the sector.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) released updated forecasts for economic growth this year for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries that show a sharp slowdown in 2020 and all except Turkey will return negative results.
Equity and bond markets have been rocked by record volumes of outflows since the end of February in one of the biggest sell offs ever, but the pace of selling seems to be slowing in the last few days, said the Institute of International Finance (IIF)
Burden seen as Turkey’s biggest headache in wake of currency crisis. Figures come amid pandemic as analysts say idea EMs will face ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows is starting to gain traction.
Economic consultancy Capital Economics has slashed its growth forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to a 2% y/y contractions from the previous 2.3% expansion in 2020, as a result of the coronavirus.
“If the necessary measures are not taken, Turkey will be like Italy or Spain, where the daily death toll is in the hundreds,” says Turkish professor.
Finance minister accused of just “dropping in from outer space” for sticking to his targets. Lira continues to crumble as analysts slash growth forecasts.
Investment bank concludes country can expect worst annualised growth shrinkage of any emerging market. But finance minister rejects idea that economic carnage is on horizon.
Science Council member says country has lost its chance to be a “Singapore” or a “Hong Kong” and needs to spend all its available energy on not becoming an “Italy”.
Debt payments postponed, tax burdens cut and aviation and tourism supported. On same day, Toyota Turkey announces production suspension.
Analyst sees set of announced measures as “stronger than” a cut in borrowing costs. Lira, however, is at its weakest since currency crisis and strategists see it as set to come under even more pressure.
Country was last major economy to report an infection. Veracity of its testing and declaring of scale of pandemic’s impact on Turks under scrutiny.
Medical Association head makes claim as Erdogan administration remains under pressure to explain how Turkey can have so few recorded infections.
The EBRD has unveiled an emergency €1bn “Solidarity Package” to help companies deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Justice ministry figures show that between 2014 and 2018 some 17,500 people were sued for insulting strongman. Hundreds of minors among those prosecuted.
All hospitals nationwide send samples to centralised testing facility in Ankara. Lack of identified infections “provoked suspicion” because there is no way to challenge the result, doctor and academic says.
Not long off the canvas after suffering a near knockout in its currency crisis, country could find itself out of ammo in the face of a Global Financial Crisis II.
At launch ex-ally of Turkish president says: “This country’s people have been made very sad in the last years … We will not allow our nation to have more sadness.”
Emerging market bond funds suffering “disastrous” performance numbers. Fear of redemptions and forced selling. EM sovereign dollar bond spreads wider by 50-100bp since start of month.