Digital lockdown

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow April 8, 2020

Governments in Central and Eastern Europe are using the latest technologies to enforce lockdowns and track anyone suspected of carrying the coronavirus.

ING: How a post-Covid world could look

Carsten Brzeski and Carlo Cocuzzo of ING April 7, 2020

Low interest rates for even longer or maybe even forever, and ballooning government balance sheets will shape the post Covid-19 era. But that's not all. The health crisis may have fundamentally altered the structure of our economy.

Polish ruling party eventually pushes through mail-only presidential election in May

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw April 7, 2020

Government claims a postal vote is a safe way to carry out the election during the ongoing coronavirus epidemic, but opponents say the safety of millions of people could be endangered on voting day.

Central Europe’s retail boom comes crashing to an end

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow April 6, 2020

Years of consumption-fuelled growth have left Central European states with large retail sectors that are now facing a coronavirus-related slump. It’s set to get even worse once the initial urge to stockpile wears off.

ING: Negative growth for Central and Eastern Europe with more easing ahead

Petr Krpata Chief EMEA FX and IR Strategist for ING April 3, 2020

All CEE countries should experience negative growth in 2020, with 2Q20 constituting the bottom.

Poland’s PMI the first indicator pummelled by COVID-19

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw April 2, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic drove the decline of the indicator, which is likely the first in a series of steeply deteriorated macroeconomic readings to come out this month.

EBRD reveals CEE/Eurasia economies’ vulnerability to external shocks amid coronavirus crisis

bne IntelIiNews April 1, 2020

Development bank looks at the resilience of states in the region to falling commodity prices, value chain disruption, declines in tourism and domestic disruption.

Poland “relatively resilient” to COVID-19, Fitch says

bne IntelliNews March 31, 2020

Rating agency expects a significant negative impact from the pandemic on Poland's real GDP growth in 2020, followed by a V-shaped recovery in 2021.

Poland’s PiS passes COVID-19 economic package to criticism from all sides

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw March 30, 2020

The package, dubbed an “anti-crisis shield” by the ruling Law and Justice party, is aimed at helping an economy about to enter its biggest crisis since the 1980s.

THE MITTELEUROPEAN VIEW: Why it is exactly the right time to fully revive the Vienna Initiative 1.0

Gunter Deuber of Raiffeisen Research in Vienna March 27, 2020

For the banking sectors in CEE, hypothetical stress scenarios are becoming reality. A forum like the Vienna Initiative could be an ideal place to find coherent solutions during the current crisis.

CEE hotel deals put on hold amid coronavirus pandemic

bne IntelliNews March 26, 2020

After a vintage 2019, almost €2bn worth of deals were expected to close in the hotel sectors of six Central and Southeast European countries this year, but these are looking increasingly unlikely to complete, says a report from law firm CMS.

IIF forecasts a contraction of -1.4% in CEE, -1.3% in Russia, but Turkish growth remains in the black in 2020

Ben Aris in Berlin March 26, 2020

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) released updated forecasts for economic growth this year for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries that show a sharp slowdown in 2020 and all except Turkey will return negative results.

Is the pace of outflows from EMs starting to slow?

bne IntelliNews March 26, 2020

Equity and bond markets have been rocked by record volumes of outflows since the end of February in one of the biggest sell offs ever, but the pace of selling seems to be slowing in the last few days, said the Institute of International Finance (IIF)

Capital Economics slashes CEE growth forecasts for 2020 to -2% y/y

bne IntelliNews March 25, 2020

Economic consultancy Capital Economics has slashed its growth forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to a 2% y/y contractions from the previous 2.3% expansion in 2020, as a result of the coronavirus.

Poland launches app to track people in coronavirus quarantine

bne IntelliNews March 24, 2020

Polish residents in home quarantine must take a selfie within 20 minutes of receiving an alert or face a visit from the police.

Citizens fear unscrupulous leaders will take advantage of lockdowns

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow March 23, 2020

Restricting social interaction is a vital part of the efforts to delay the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, but in some countries people fear politicians will use the opportunity for their own ends.

Poland’s coronavirus case toll races past 600 as state of epidemic kicks in

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw March 23, 2020

Sunday marked the end of the first full week of partial lockdown imposed by the government in an effort to keep the epidemic at levels manageable by the country’s underfunded and understaffed health care system.

Polish retail sales see off good times with growth 7.3% y/y in February

bne IntelliNews March 20, 2020

February marked a gain of 3.9pp in retail turnover growth in comparison to the y/y expansion recorded in January. That will be the last positive reading from the retail sector as March figures will tank as an effect of the coronavirus lockdown.

Coronavirus crisis to widen rich/poor gap within Central and Eastern Europe

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow March 19, 2020

Convergence to be reversed as the economic crisis resulting from the coronavirus pandemic is set to be deeper and longer in the CIS, Ukraine, Turkey and the Western Balkans than in the EU member states of Central and Southeast Europe.

Poland announces €47bn programme to support economy in wake of coronavirus outbreak

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw March 18, 2020

The government is reacting to the expected overwhelming impact that the outbreak is nearly certain to have on Poland’s economy in the months to come. Most analysts predict the country’s GDP growth to ease to no more than 2% in 2020 from 4% last year.