Opinion

TURKEY INSIGHT: Base effect delivers industrial growth after year of decline but official data continues to bewilder

Akin Nazli in Belgrade November 14, 2019

Import compression is over. Officials are turbo-charging GDP. Lira is held in ‘dirty float’. Turks insist inflation is still high. Authorities are telling them they're wrong. Economics anoraks shouldn't miss an episode of the Erdogan experiment.

IIF: 2020 the climate super-year

Institute of International Finance November 11, 2019

The growing importance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance to investors (and ultimately to voters) is one of the most important forces shaping the new global economy. CO2 emissions must peak next year or we are in trouble.

IMF ups the ante, demands government try and recover $15bn stolen from banks

Robert Homans in Los Angeles November 9, 2019

During the bank sector reform more than $15bn was stolen by the owners, including $7.6bn stolen by oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky from Privatbank. The IMF has demanded the government tries to recover some of this before granting a new deal.

TURKEY AT A CROSSROADS: Erdogan administration facing possibly decisive economic and political horizons

Timothy Ash November 7, 2019

Notes from BlueBay Asset Management economist Timothy Ash on his latest visits to Istanbul and Ankara.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Erdogan’s upcoming White House photocall whetting appetite of equity hit-and-runners

Akin Nazli in Belgrade November 6, 2019

Beware, says analyst, “When a country's ruler resembles King Lear out on a moor in the storm, any calm is temporary and deceptive”.

EBRD: Pace of emerging Europe economic growth slows as global outlook weakens

EBRD in London November 6, 2019

The pace of growth in the EBRD’s emerging economies is slowing on the back of a weaker global economic outlook, and pressure from slower growth in the Eurozone and China, US/Chinese trade tensions and a contraction in world automobile production, acc

AFC: Capital Markets Reform is now a priority of Uzbekistan’s government

Scott Osheroff in Singapore November 3, 2019

On October 7, 2019 Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev held a meeting with several ministers, including the Capital Markets Development Agency, where he directed them to “consolidate all relevant laws into a single simple capital market law

IIF: IMF meetings, not as bad as you think

Elina Ribakova Deputy Chief Economist of the Institute of International Finance et al October 27, 2019

Investors and policymakers finished the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank annual general meetings in October on a more positive note than expected.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Strongman Erdogan takes on the markets. Rate cuts add up to 1,000 bp since he fired central bank governor

bne IntelliNews October 24, 2019

Officials unleashing flood of cash in bid to reboot economy and president's popularity. Analysts are wary.

ALACO DISPATCHES: Latvia seeks to rebuild tarnished banking reputation

Jonathan Clare of Alaco October 24, 2019

International scrutiny and intervention have prompted the Latvian authorities to clean up the scandal-plagued financial sector, but the jury is still out on whether they have managed to do enough thus far.

CAPITAL ECONOMICS: Russian retail sales set for a tepid recovery

Liam Peach of Capital Economics in London October 23, 2019

The weakness in Russian retail sales looks close to bottoming out, but any turnaround will be modest. This is one reason to think that the overall recovery in GDP growth will be weak and that the central bank’s easing cycle is likely to be deeper tha

Erdogan officials bring in more irregular measures to defend Turkish markets after US presses Iran sanctions-busting Halkbank charges

Will Conroy in Prague October 16, 2019

From out of nowhere oil revenues laundering case is back to haunt Turkey’s strongman. Officials act to stop shorting of lira and banking shares.

VIENNEAST COMPASS: How many straws to break a camel’s back? How do illiberal economies attract so much FDI

Marcus How of Vienneast in Vienna October 15, 2019

On October 13, on either side of the Tatras mountains, “illiberal democrats” faced their latest litmus tests. The ruling parties of PiS and Fidesz retain their grip on power, but in both countries foreign investors don't seem to care

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