The return of industrial output to moderate 1.2% year-on-year growth in March confirms the technical nature of February's 4.1% y/y spike. So far we see signs of a slowdown of investment activity at the beginning of 2019.
The only reason for the ruble's 6% appreciation to the US dollar in 1Q19 was the $7.5bn gross portfolio inflows into the state bond market, as Russia's expectedly strong current account was fully offset by the government and the private sector's pref
Washington was the only World Trade Organization (WTO) member that supported Moscow in a highly politicised trade dispute with Ukraine and the whole organisation has been thrown into an existential crisis as a result.
At first glance, the enlargement of the EU to include the states of the Western Balkans seems to be an irrelevant trifle for the EU, but on closer inspection it is a good idea as expansion of the EU is not just about business.
Russian CPI in March was at the lower bound of the consensus range. We see CPI growth as being close to its peak this year, however, the longer-term risk profile still calls for caution on the part of the Central Bank
The flawed recent elections in Moldova reveal a simpler truth: that political expediency and corruption often wins over strategic and geopolitical orientation.
Until it’s clear whether or not the strongman will take the Ankara and Istanbul election defeats on the chin, the country will feel stuck at a crossroads.
For Armenia, a Russian ally, a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), and once regarded as increasingly autocratic, the 2018 Velvet Revolution was a remarkable achievement.
Analysts would be shocked if ruling AKP party countenances losing both Ankara and Istanbul.
Newly published EBRD research finds that a significant proportion of value chains within the 12 EU countries where the Bank operates, and also in Turkey as a member of the EU Customs Union, could be affected in an event of Brexit
The “Kazakhstan transition” has been expected for years. Although it was widely predicted, no one – inside or outside of Kazakhstan – could guess exactly when it would happen.
The lira is once more losing its feet and Turkey’s stocks and bonds have another bloody nose. The latest Erdogan-Trump beef was the trigger, but eurobond markets had started to tire of Turkish debt and locals show no confidence in their currency.
Ukraine has a debt mountain to climb with $15bn of bonds to refinance this year and $21bn in 2020. An improving economy gives the country better access to the international capital markets, but the battle remains uphill.
The unemployment rate in Turkey rose in December to the highest level seen since September 2009, as job creation lost momentum amid a deeper rebalancing in the economy
The spike of industrial output growth in February trumped the consensus but it mostly due to railway passenger car production and so is probably a one-off