Opinion

COMMENT: The new Romanian leu 15 years on

Alexandru M. Tanase in London July 10, 2020

The re-denomination of the Romanian leu in 2005 had lasting economic and emotional consequences for the population and for domestic and international markets.

STOLYPIN: Russia’s opportunistic MENA policy: scavenging, not strategising

Mark Galeotti July 10, 2020

One crucial difference between today’s Russia and both the USSR and the US is that it will not – cannot – pay the price of empire, whether in blood or treasure.

CAPITAL ECONOMICS: A deep dive into Turkey’s latest credit boom

Jason Tuvey of Capital Economics in London July 9, 2020

Turkey’s credit boom that started towards the end of last year has been turbocharged in recent months and this should provide some welcome support to the economy as it emerges from the coronavirus crisis. But will it go too far?

COMMENT: Borrower beware: Uzbekistan’s dollar debt binge could spell long-term trouble

Atabek Nazirov is Director of the Capital Markets Development Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan July 7, 2020

Uzbekistan’s inaugural $1bn Eurobond in February of last year was hailed as a landmark event for Uzbekistan. Now its on the map for international creditors, the government need to avoid a borrowing binge that will end in a debt trap.

COMMENT: Smolii’s Resignation and the soft coup underway in Ukraine

Robert Homans in Los Angeles July 7, 2020

The resignation of Yakiv Smolii as governor of the NBU could be taken as the end of serious reforms in Ukraine and a "soft coup" that puts the old guard back in charge of the country

COMMENT: Five reasons why Zelenskiy is failing in Ukraine: Zelenskiy faces a political future that is no laughing matter

Melinda Haring deputy director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council July 6, 2020

Volodymyr Zelenskiy's presidency seems to have gone off the tracks but no one is quite sure what is going on. Is he a puppet or just out of his depth? Melinda Haring of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council offers five theories.

COMMENT: Finding a third Musketeer to run the National Bank of Ukraine

Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management July 2, 2020

The governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yakiv Smolii abruptly quit on July 1, sending a shock through the investment community. Now he has gone, who will replace him?

COMMENT: Yanukovych’s “Own Goal;” Zelenskiy’s “Lesson Learned”

Robert Homans in Los Angeles June 25, 2020

In September 2013, at the Annual “YES” Conference in Yalta, former President Yanukovych said: ”We have to move toward European integration,” causing participants to dance on the beach. He didn't do it and sparked the Maidan revolution

BEYOND THE BOSPHORUS: Tobin tax means it’s back to the good old money changing days at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar

Akin Nazli in Belgrade June 24, 2020

Prying officials also driving business clients away from banks.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Morgan Stanley warns Turks MSCI Frontier Markets status may be around corner

Akin Nazli in Belgrade June 24, 2020

At the same time, ING discordantly claims it senses possible turning point for foreigners’ interest in Turkish bonds.

COMMENT: Lukashenko’s penultimate elections

Tadeusz Giczan PhD Researcher at the University of London School of Slavonic & East European Studies June 20, 2020

President Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus has long been a success story in the post-Soviet world, but now he is in trouble facing country-wide protests. He will probably win the August elections, but how long can he hang on to power?

BEYOND THE BOSPHORUS: Erdogan becomes top shareholder in Turkcell

Akin Nazli in Belgrade June 18, 2020

Telia seen as selling stake at less than 50% of market value. Analyst asks: “How did a partly Swedish-state-owned co get so deeply embroiled in Turkey’s authoritarian decline?”

COMMENT: Global remittances to suffer a blow from COVID-19

Gerelyn Terzo of Sharemoney in New York June 18, 2020

Instead of triggering an increase in remittance payments, which is typical during times of crisis, the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic has caused migrant payments to households in developing countries to slow dramatically.

Europe and Nato’s Libya nightmare outcome would leave Russian and Turkish military bases staring across the Med

bne IntelIiNews June 16, 2020

Ankara reportedly discussing lasting military presence with Tripoli ally. Russia has flown fighter jets to desert sites controlled by rebel forces.

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