Lukashenko says he may quit as president
Belarus hits EU with tit-for-tat sanctions
Belarusian police introduce colour-coded torture system for detained protesters
Kremlin publicly condemns Belarusian police brutality in hint of growing frustration with Lukashenko
Russian services PMI rises to 48.2, but remains underwater as recovery continues to slow
Russia to start mass vaccinations on December 7
Azerbaijan’s Aliyev calls on Armenia, Russia, Turkey and Iran to assist in creating Nakhchivan land corridor
FPRI BMB Russia: Sberbank releases a three-year transformation strategy to e-commerce concern
Ukraine’s banking sector continues recovery, but profits still lagging last year
Ukraine’s real wages up over 10% in October but have been stagnant in dollar terms for almost a year
FPRI BMB Ukraine: Public has confused opinions on resolving the Donbas conflict
Western Balkans plus Ukraine subsidised coal with over €900mn in 2018-2019
Estonian parcel robot firm Cleveron eyes €30mn state loan
Estonia’s chief auditor says €1bn in state COVID-19 loans issued haphazardly
Economic sentiment in CEE falls in November as recovery momentum splutters
Estonian animation studio Imepilt to hold IPO
Brighter days ahead: The economic bounce back in 2021
Central, Southeast Europe stock markets jump in anticipation of COVID-free future
VISEGRAD BLOG: An easing of trade tensions but still an uncertain situation for export-oriented Central Europe
Hungary's PM risks isolation as Poland mulls dropping EU budget veto
Poland ready to back down from veto of EU budget
Hungary's ruling party in damage control mode after MEP sex scandal bombshell
Poland’s PMI remains stuck just above the improvement line at 50.8 in November
Czech companies dominate this year’s Deloitte Technology Fast 50 CE
Coronacrisis to get worse before it gets better forecasts wiiw
EU diplomats say no chance of Bulgaria removing veto for Skopje to start EU accession talks
IMF says downside risks to Albanian economy are increasing
EU ministers fail to agree on launch of accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia
Western Balkans commit to green agenda and regional common market at Sofia summit
Bosnia’s opposition ousts nationalist parties in major cities
Bosnia’s main ethnic parties fight to hold onto power in local elections
Southeast Europe’s EU members to get biggest boost from next budget and recovery funds
Bulgaria imposes 3-week lockdown to slow down COVID-19 spread
CEE politicians highlight trade and security ties as they congratulate Biden
Breakaway Transnistria fully under Sheriff’s control as Obnovlenie party sweeps board in parliament election
Moldova’s presidential election is over, now the battle for the parliament begins
Moldova’s foreign policy reset
Russian establishment quick to congratulate Moldova's new president-elect
Rising COVID-19 cases put intense pressure on CEE healthcare systems
MEPs urge European Commission to act against Hungarian media financing in North Macedonia and Slovenia
North Macedonia mulls decriminalising cannabis to boost tourism
Retail surpass pre-crisis peak as Romanians shop instead of holiday
Romanian venture capital firm Catalyst launches new €40mn-50mn fund for TMT
Aegon to sell its CEE business to Vienna Insurance for €830mn
The state is back in business
Slovenian PM Jansa stands alongside Hungary and Poland in EU rule of law row
BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Turkish number crunchers deliver November inflation surprise of 14%
Erdogan needs to go says analyst assessing Turkey’s economic collapse
Ukraine strikes deal with Turkey to produce killer drones instrumental in Karabakh conflict
In Karabakh deal, as many questions as answers
Protesters flood Yerevan demanding Armenia’s “traitor” PM quit over Nagorno-Karabakh surrender
Who emerge as the real winners from the bloody Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Below average 2020 wine production destined for volatile and uncertain global market
Iran calls on Saudis to limit $67bn defence spending to Tehran’s $10bn
Iranian prosecutors pledge to pursue Trump for Soleimani killing even after he leaves White House
No reaction from Kazakh elites as bombshell FT report says Nazarbayev’s son in law siphoned millions from pipeline scheme
UK court freezes $5bn in assets connected to fugitive Kazakh banker Ablyazov
Attack of the Debt Tsunami: global debt soars to a new all-time high
Kyrgyzstan's proposed new constitution provokes widespread revulsion
Kyrgyzstan's China debt: Between crowdfunding and austerity
CFC joins RWC in assessing KAZ Minerals buyout offer as under-valuation
China business briefing: Not happy with Kyrgyzstan
Mongolian coal exports to China paralysed as Beijing demands virus testing of truck drivers
Mongolia fears economic damage as country faces up to its first local transmissions of coronavirus
Mongolia in lockdown after suffering first local coronavirus transmissions
Mongolia’s wrestling culture: From the grasslands to the cage
No surprises in Tajikistan as Rahmon retains presidency with 91% of vote
A Tajikistan poised on verge of economic calamity set for vote
Tajikistan revives on-off dispute with Iran
Turkmenistan: The dammed united
Turkmenistan: Everybody yurts, sometimes
Dirty money investigation reviews identified payments worth $1.4bn linked to Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan unveils extensive privatisation programme
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Roll up! Roll up! Come and see the amazing new wave of positive headlines on Turkey flooding out of the market-making newswires once again. The buzz is built and it could seem to the onlooker that it is already late in the day to position in Turkish assets. The critical point on the horizon, however, is the rate-setting meeting to be held on October 22. Circle 14:00 hours Istanbul time, when the curtain will be lifted on the result of the central bank’s deliberations.
Expectations for a 200bp hike are already bought. A lower hike could thus prove a bad surprise following the flashily-packaged “no-hike rate hike” surprise at the last meeting, held on September 24.
Adding just 150-200bp to the headline policy rate would mean a second “no-hike rate hike”. Then we might see the sale of the expectation already bought after the realisation.
On the other hand, a higher-than-expected rate hike would still mean nothing against the bleakness that is Turkey’s lot at the moment, but it might signify that the government is serious about attracting some portfolio inflows at the cost of putting more pressure on the struggling millions in the country who have lived with a wretched economic reality for years.
Perhaps that positivity might continue until President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decides enough is enough and he has little option but to pour some bank loans the way of ordinary Turks.
Comparisons between the current situation on the Turkish markets and past experience overlooks a small detail. The government has burnt through more than $100bn in reserves since last year and it is still chucking more on the fire to support the beleaguered lira.
Some still insist on using official data to deliver some “scientific” arguments. The most popular route is through the real effective exchange rate (REER).
Yet even Turkish kids on the block would tell you that Turkey’s official inflation rate is fake. But go ahead, use your “scientific” genius to portray the lira at its CPI-based real value as cheaper than peers. Look away from that spuriously low official inflation. And call it "analysis".
Well, allow this blog to conclude with its own “analysis” and an analyst’s note to the wise.
Turkish markets are right now as speculative as they have ever been. But as always there “toughie traders” out there with a cold eye in the hunt for hit-and-run opportunities along with the Turkish government. The local gamblers are small fry. They only play the modest trading boards.
“Mkt wants/demands an unequivocal, conventional min 150bp rate hike from CBT Thursday. I think given CBT funding @ present, WACF is already >12%, that CBT will provide this. TRY will strengthen a bit. Therefore, ST trading opportunity to buy either AKBNK or GARAN. TRY could be 7.80 Friday, maybe even stronger if dollar weakness, of which I am the high priest, continues. Trading call buy AK 5.40 or GAR 7.50. Dump on Friday (or Thurs if the unthinkable happens and they don't hike),” Julian Rimmer of Investec wrote on October 20 in an emailed note to investors.
Reflections from our correspondents on the ground in the Turkish capital.
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