Polish retail sales grew 3.7% y/y in constant prices in June, the statistics office GUS said on July 19.
The reading marks a slowdown of 1.9pp in retail turnover growth in comparison to y/y expansion recorded in May. The reduction is a result of the calendar effect, Erste says. “The unusual negative calendar affect and earlier start of the holiday season had a negative impact on the June figure,” the Austrian bank said.
Still, the expansion in June is in line with Polish households’ general inclination towards increased consumption, driven by the good situation on the labour market, as manifested by low unemployment and growing wages.
The June slowdown in growth of retail sales turnover is “unlikely to mark the start of a sustained slowdown,” Capital Economics said.
“This looks to be temporary and we expect robust wage growth alongside a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 2% of GDP which is focussed on households to support consumer spending this year,” Capital Economics said.
Poland’s GDP growth came in at 5.1% y/y in 2018, the fastest expansion in over a decade. The economy also expanded 4.7% y/y in the first quarter in adjusted and non-adjusted terms alike in a show of resilience amidst the worsening of the external environment.
All but three retail segments expanded y/y sales in constant prices in June, GUS data showed. Sales of textiles, clothing, and shoes grew 12.9% y/y while sales of furniture, audio and video equipment, and domestic appliances increased 8.9% y/y. Sales of food, drinks, and tobacco products declined 1.5% y/y. Fuels sales grew 2.9% y/y.
In monthly terms, retail sales gained 1.6% in constant prices in June. In current prices, retail sales grew 5.3% y/y versus an expansion of 7.3% y/y in May. In monthly terms in current prices, sales grew 1.5% compared to a fall of 3% m/m in May.
In January-June, retail sales grew 6.2% y/y in constant prices and 7.5% y/y in current prices.