Five years after the Maidan revolution, the DCFTA between the EU and Ukraine is turning out to be an important vehicle in the East European country’s gradual economic decoupling from Russia. It is also buttressing the its slow but steady reform path.
The core message for bankers and investors active in the CEE region should be: close to old records, potential for more but watch out for late cycle phenomena.
Ukraine heads to the polls again for parliamentary elections on July 21, and expectations are building of another pro-reform vote to follow Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s landslide victory in the run off of the presidential election in April.
Sberbank’s chief economist says Russian inflation could come in below 4% in 2019
The scheduled pick-up in state-sponsored investments leaves hopes for a recovery in Russian GDP growth following the disappointing 0.5% YoY in 1Q19, but weak exports and consumption mean the recovery will be modest
May data on household income and consumption is slightly better than expected although this could be down to one-off factors. Corporate activity is clearly subdued but may see some support from the scheduled pick up in state spending in the second ha