The main opposition in Georgia is most likely to score a victory in the presidential election runoff, but it is not guaranteed that the centre-right United National Movement (UNM) will overthrow the ruling big tent Georgian Dream coalition in the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2020, head of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development Gia Nodia has said.

Commenting on the outcome of the first round of the presidential elections held on October 28, and anticipating the runoff that must take place before December 2, Nodia said the result amounted to a very important personal victory for exiled former president Mikheil Saakashvili because UNM-backed Grigol Vashadze—who took 37.74% of votes compared to the 38.64% won by independent candidate and Georgian Dream-backed Salome Zurabishvili—is his protege.

Notably, Vashadze won more votes than French-born fellow former Georgian foreign minister Zurabishvili in the capital Tbilisi and in all Georgia’s other major cities. The precincts in these locations were best covered by foreign observer missions sent to monitor the elections.

Violations and discrepancies were observed, according to Kristian Vigenin, head of the OSCE organisation’s observer mission for the elections, but they did not pose a threat to the result. Voting was well organised in polling stations and voters could make their choice without any obstacle, said Andrej Hunko, head of the delegation from the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly.

Zurabishvili won and even received more than 50% of votes in some remote highland regions.

“If the opposition fails to bring the affair to a victorious conclusion, it will be their fault, not the government’s,” Nodia also stated. “One of the reasons for the defeat was the decision of [Georgian Dream leader, ex-PM and billionaire] Bidzina Ivanishvili. He chose an absolutely inappropriate candidate, and against the wishes of his own party,” the institute head observed.

Looking at what a main opposition president could mean for the general election, Nodia said the UNM could win, but only if it learned how to cooperate with the smaller opposition parties.