Fitch Solutions has revised Azerbaijan’s economic growth forecast to 2.6% for 2024 and 2.4% for 2026, citing continued dependence on the oil and gas sector despite diversification measures. The update comes from the research arm of Fitch Group.

According to the assessment, hydrocarbons still account for 38.5% of GDP, keeping the country exposed to fluctuations in global oil prices. The firm expects the average oil price to decline by 15% in 2025, which would weaken budget and export revenues. For 2026–2027, the risks are mainly on the upside due to the potential impact of sanctions on Russia restricting part of global supply.

Fitch Solutions said non-oil growth will remain supported by recent trade agreements, a gradual recovery of investment flows and stronger private consumption driven by prioritised social spending.

Real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.9% in 2027–2028, rise further to 3.6% in 2029 and then ease to 2.8% in 2030. Nominal GDP is forecast at $102.4bn in 2024, $110.5bn in 2025, $115.6bn in 2027 and $121bn in 2028. The figure is expected to exceed $130bn in 2029 and reach $141.5bn in 2030. GDP per capita is estimated at $9,740 in 2024, $10,468 in 2025 and $10,912 in 2027. It is expected to surpass $11,000 in 2028, $12,000 in 2029 and $13,000 in 2030.

The report notes that the Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s cautious monetary policy, large foreign reserves and managed-float regime will continue to support the stability of the manat. Fitch Solutions expects the USD/AZN rate to remain at 1.7 in 2026, with no significant movements unless major external shocks occur. Inflationary pressures are forecast to ease gradually, giving the central bank limited room for cautious policy softening, which in turn will help maintain exchange-rate stability.