Erdogan’s former economy czar Babacan resigns from Turkey’s ruling AKP

Erdogan’s former economy czar Babacan resigns from Turkey’s ruling AKP
Ali Babacan is Turkey’s former Deputy PM and economy Tsar and could mount a challenge to president Erdogan / wiki
By bne IntelliNews July 9, 2019

July 8 saw the long-awaited resignation of Ali Babacan, Turkey’s former Deputy PM and economy Tsar, from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), could cause a split in the ruling party and is seen as a serious challenge to the president’s authority.

Barbacan is expected to found a new political party that will be backed by former President Abdullah Gul, another AKP founder and Erdogan’s former ally.

The timing of Babacan’s resigning, just after the dismissal of the central bank governor by Erdogan, that has also caused a scandal, doubles down on the pressure Erdogan was already feeling.

Markets and Turkey’s traditional Western allies are likely to back Babacan in a government reshuffle in Turkey, as they tire of the irratic policies of the increasingly unhinged Erdogan. However, Babacan’s ability to create excitement among Turkish voters is currently a question mark whereas Erdogan enjoys strong support from the hoi polloi making him difficult to oust.

Babacan’s party could steal a few percentage points of votes from Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey on his own for years and won the support of just over 50% of the electorate at the last snap elections held in June 2018. It remains unlikely that Babacan can command the popular support to start some sort of “coloured revolution” that would be able to sweep Erdogan from power.

But Erdogan’s public support is also flagging and under the spotlight following his defeat-by-proxy in the Istanbul mayoral vote – which he lost twice, after he forced through a revote held on June 23.

Babacan’s party is rumoured to be steal some MPs from the ruling AKP. The AKP has currently 291 seats in 600-seat parliament. 11 seats are empty so there are currently a total of 589 active deputies in the parliament.

Erdogan’s junior coalition partner Devlet Bahceli’s MHP has 49 seats. In total, the ruling coalition has currently 340 seats.

The opposition controls a total of 249 seats.

However, it should not be forgotten that following the transition to the new executive president system the powers of parliament have been weakened in Turkey and Erdogan increased his grip on power.

The opposition needs 360 votes in the parliament to call an early election but even though Babacan can not steal that many MPs from Erdogan’s ruling AKP, early elections pressure on Erdogan would intensify if the ruling coalition falls below 300 seats.

As bne Intellinews has been voicing since Erdogan’s humiliating loss at March 31 local polls that a real Turkey watcher should now been pondering when early elections will be called and who will trigger the polls.

Formally the next elections are not slated to happen until 2020.

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