Recent 2026 results suggest that major African cement producers, including Dangote, BUA, Bamburi and PPC, could continue to grow earnings despite higher energy costs and uneven demand, with higher selling prices among the factors supporting performance in Nigeria.

Across the continent, demand is uneven rather than uniformly weak, making returns on existing and new capacity an important test of the investment case. Expansion alone is an insufficient guide to earnings quality.

This overview draws on company results available through September 2026. It uses Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa as the main case studies, with other markets illustrating different capacity, ownership and demand dynamics.

The company figures cover different reporting periods, product mixes and accounting measures, and are used as case studies rather than a like-for-like ranking. Company revenue and earnings growth rates are presented as reported, without consistent adjustments for inflation, currency movements or exceptional items.

Nigeria: growth meets the capacity test

Dangote Cement Plc (NGX:DANGCEM) reported H1 2026 revenue growth of 21.4%, EBITDA growth of 25.8% and a 22.7% increase in profit after tax. Group cement and clinker sales volumes rose 11.8% to 14.9mn tonnes.

Pan-African volumes rose 19% to 5.95mn tonnes, but segment EBITDA was broadly flat and the margin fell to about 17.6% from 20.1%. Proshare Research attributed the margin pressure partly to post-election disruption in Cameroon, alongside pricing controls and competitor undercutting in Ghana.

In Nigeria, Dangote said higher fuel prices linked to disruptions in global oil markets following the Middle East conflict had increased transport and logistics costs.

Capacity continues to expand. Dangote is advancing projects at Itori in Nigeria and in Ethiopia after commissioning a 3mn-tonne grinding plant in Côte d'Ivoire. Its corporate target is to reach installed capacity of 80mn tonnes a year by 2030, while Aliko Dangote told the Financial Times in May that he was aiming for 100mn tonnes.

Dangote's debt/EBITDA ratio, as adjusted by Moody's, stood at 0.4x in the 12 months to March 2026, with net leverage of 0.1x, although the ratings agency also flagged the group's dividend policy and historical reliance on short-term borrowing.

In an August 11 analysis of Dangote’s H1 results, Proshare Research highlighted a financing qualification to the stronger balance sheet: accrued capital expenditure more than doubled to NGN354.2bn while cash capital expenditure fell 20.1% to NGN130.7bn. Proshare said the divergence indicated greater reliance on supplier credit, a financing pattern it said warranted monitoring.

See IntelliNews: Nigeria's Dangote Cement ups dividend 50% for record $550mn payout ahead of planned refinery IPO

BUA Cement Plc (NGX:BUACEMENT) reported H1 revenue up 25.6% and profit after tax up almost 80%, helped by a foreign-exchange gain and lower finance costs, so the profit increase does not solely reflect operating improvement.

HBM Nigeria Plc (NGX:HBMNG), formerly Lafarge Africa Plc, reported net sales up 31.2% and profit after tax up 57%. China's Huaxin Building Materials Group (SSE:600801; HKEX:6655) acquired an 83.81% stake in Lafarge Africa from Holcim (SIX:HOLN) in 2025 in a transaction valuing 100% of the Nigerian company's equity at $1bn before dividend adjustments. Lafarge Africa was subsequently renamed HBM Nigeria and its NGX symbol changed from WAPCO to HBMNG.

The gap between installed capacity and estimated domestic consumption is already substantial. Nigeria's Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission said publicly available estimates indicate that three major producers account for more than 90% of installed capacity, while its survey put national capacity at “more than 60–65mn tonnes” a year against estimated consumption of 25–30mn tonnes. Exports absorb part of that gap. The commission said in August that preliminary findings from an industry investigation also suggested possible manipulation of cement prices.

Kenya: integration changes the cost base

Bamburi Cement (NSE:BAMB; trading suspended) passed from Holcim's control to Tanzania's Amsons Group in late 2024. Amsons is pairing the acquisition with a KES32bn ($250mn) clinker plant at Matuga in Kwale County.

The plant is expected to add 1.6mn tonnes a year of clinker capacity and incorporate alternative fuels and raw materials including coconut and cashew-nut husks and municipal solid waste.

"The new clinker line will greatly reduce reliance on imported clinker," Bamburi CEO Mohit Kapoor said when the project was announced. Bamburi said local production should improve supply security, reduce foreign-exchange exposure and help stabilise pricing.

Amsons has also expanded its stake in East African Portland Cement Company (NSE:PORT). Amsons-linked entities controlled about 68.7% of EAPC by late 2025, including approximately 12.5% held by related company Bamburi Cement.

The strategy centres on vertical integration, replacing imported clinker while strengthening control over production and distribution.

See IntelliNews: Kenyan MPs oppose Tanzanian tycoon's bid for Portland Cement stake, urge buyback

South Africa: earnings growth with limited volume growth

South African cement producer PPC Ltd (JSE:PPC) reported revenue of ZAR10.255bn (about $590mn) for the year ended March 31, 2026, up 3.9%, while EBITDA increased 31% to ZAR2.079bn and profit after tax rose to ZAR859mn from ZAR466mn.

Cement sales volumes in South Africa and Botswana, including clinker sales to Zimbabwe, rose just 1.3%. South African cement EBITDA increased 43% to ZAR1.196bn, but that included ZAR139mn from the sale of a non-core property. Excluding the disposal, EBITDA rose about 26% to ZAR1.057bn and the underlying margin reached 16.9%.

"Not trying to grow market share, not trying to push for volumes," CEO Matias Cardarelli said in June. PPC said total costs including depreciation fell 3.6% despite input-cost inflation, reflecting logistics savings, operational efficiencies and overhead control.

The market is also attracting M&A interest. West China Cement (HKEX:2233) agreed in April to acquire 100% of AfriSam for ZAR2.5bn, with completion expected in the second half of 2026, subject to conditions. Heidelberg Materials (Xetra:HEI) was separately reported in May to be considering a full acquisition of PPC, although, at the time of that report, no formal offer had been made.

West China Cement had already expanded in Africa through its December 2025 acquisition of Heidelberg Materials' Cimenterie de Lukala in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Elsewhere in Africa: different models

Ethiopia remains capacity-led. West China Cement commissioned the Lemi National Cement plant in September 2024, with capacity equivalent to about 5mn tonnes of cement a year. The plant was operating at roughly 67% utilisation in H1 2026. Dangote is also adding a second production line at Mugher, intended to double capacity to 5mn tonnes a year, and a separate 3mn-tonne greenfield grinding unit.

Egypt combines stronger sales with cost pressure. Arabian Cement (EGX:ARCC) reported a 54.6% increase in H1 2026 consolidated profit. Cementir Holding (Euronext Milan:CEM) reported H1 revenue of €32.8mn at its Egyptian white-cement operation, up 56.7%, while EBITDA increased 43% to €7.3mn. Domestic volumes rose 31%, driven by stronger commercial positioning and market-share gains, while exports increased 78%, partly supported by shipments deferred from December and the resolution of technical problems after the reactivation of the second production line. The EBITDA margin nevertheless slipped to about 22% from 24% as higher energy and fixed costs partly offset stronger volumes and a more favourable geographical mix.

Morocco shows the difference between acquisition-led scale and underlying growth. Ciments du Maroc (CSE:CMA), controlled by Heidelberg Materials, completed its $262.4mn acquisition of 62.62% of Asment de Témara and almost all of aggregates producer Grabemaro in June 2025. H1 consolidated operating revenue rose 21.4% after Témara entered the group perimeter but fell 6% on a comparable pro-forma basis. Consolidated net profit also fell 8.2% to MAD559mn, or 22.3% on a comparable pro-forma basis. Excluding one-offs at comparable scope, net profit fell 6.7%.

Ghana offers a different form of integration. Heidelberg Materials and CBI Ghana began production at a calcined-clay plant at Tema in 2025, before President John Mahama formally commissioned the $110mn facility in March 2026. The plant has capacity of more than 400,000 tonnes a year of calcined clay, feeding 1.5mn tonnes a year of cement production, and uses locally sourced clay to replace part of the clinker in cement, reducing exposure to clinker imports, freight costs, foreign exchange and carbon costs.

Construction and cement data add context to headline GDP

National statistics help assess whether underlying demand is keeping pace with investment, although the periods and measures differ.

Nigeria's economy grew 4.43% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, while construction expanded 6.75%. In Kenya, first-quarter GDP grew 5.3% and construction 6.6%, while cement consumption jumped 17.9%.

South African GDP contracted 0.2% quarter on quarter in the second quarter and gross fixed capital formation declined again, with construction works and transport equipment the largest negative contributors.

The picture is similarly uneven elsewhere. Morocco's first-quarter GDP grew 4.6%, but construction growth slowed to 1.5% from 7.1% a year earlier. Ghana's economy grew 6.0% year on year in the second quarter and investment rose 53.0%, while Bank of Ghana data showed cement sales fell 12.7% in the first five months of 2026, although aggregate investment is only a loose proxy for cement demand. Egypt's GDP grew an estimated 5% year on year in the third quarter of FY2025/26 while construction expanded 5.6%.

These figures point to uneven demand across the selected markets rather than a uniform construction slowdown. Construction activity and cement consumption offer more direct context for cement demand than headline GDP, while export volumes and plant utilisation help assess how fully installed capacity is being used.

Carbon adds another cost variable

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive phase in January 2026 and covers cement. For Moroccan exporters including Holcim Maroc (CSE:LHM) and Ciments du Maroc, lower clinker ratios and more energy-efficient production could become increasingly valuable as carbon costs affect competitiveness in European markets.

Investor implications

The evidence raises three questions for investors.

Demand absorption: can domestic and export markets absorb additional supply without materially weakening utilisation or pricing? Nigeria combines strong construction growth with a large gap between installed capacity and estimated domestic consumption, while Ethiopia is adding substantial new supply.

Unit economics: are higher sales translating into operating margins and cash generation? PPC improved profitability despite limited volume growth, helped by cost control. Cementir's Egyptian operation increased EBITDA while its margin narrowed, with higher energy and fixed costs partly offsetting stronger sales. Kenya and Ghana illustrate strategies intended to reduce exposure to imported inputs and associated costs.

Capital allocation: will expansion and acquisitions earn returns that justify the capital committed? Dangote is combining major expansion with shareholder distributions, while Huaxin, West China Cement and Amsons are deploying capital into acquisitions and existing market positions.

Scale alone is an insufficient measure of investment quality; operating performance, cash flow and the cost of capital are the tests that matter.

Outlook

Recent results show that some African cement producers have increased earnings despite cost pressure or limited volume growth, with higher selling prices, currency effects, lower financing costs and exceptional items contributing to reported gains in some cases.

Demand conditions differ sharply across markets, while Nigeria's competition investigation adds a regulatory risk to pricing-led growth. Recent earnings gains show resilience, but sustaining them will require demand to absorb new capacity and producers to contain production and distribution costs.