Brazil's conservative movement is on the lookout for a new champion to challenge President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in next year's elections, as former president Jair Bolsonaro’s once-formidable political dynasty self-destructs through a series of strategic blunders.

The 70-year-old former army captain is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for coup plotting. Bolsonaro, who idolised US President Donald Trump and sought to build a lasting political legacy in Latin America's largest democracy, was taken into federal police custody on November 22 after violating house arrest terms by using a soldering iron to damage his electronic ankle monitor.

Bolsonaro admitted tampering with the monitoring device but denied forming part of an escape plan intended to coincide with a demonstration outside his house organised by his senator son Flávio.

He claimed medication for severe hiccup attacks had caused hallucinations that led him to damage the equipment.

Clan's political brand damaged

The FT reported that the Bolsonaro family's desperate attempts to save the former president by appealing to longtime ally Donald Trump proved disastrous.

Washington's 50% tariffs on swaths of Brazilian goods failed to induce Brazil's Supreme Court to drop the case against the former president, while Trump lifted some levies this month after meeting Lula over concerns about rising food prices in the US.

"The Bolsonaro family's mistakes have led to a very significant destruction of their political brand equity," a senior figure at one of Brazil's leading financial institutions told the FT.

"The family have gone crazy, and what Eduardo did [seeking Trump's intervention] is absolutely reprehensible."

Bolsonaro's third son Eduardo, who in 2018 won a record number of votes for a congressman, is now in self-imposed exile in the US and, if he were to return to Brazil, would face prosecution for obstruction of justice.

The disgraced leader's eldest son Flávio, a senator seen as another presidential hopeful, organised a protest vigil by supporters last weekend that led to his father being taken into custody.

After he called on "the Lord of the Armies" to save his father, Flávio was excoriated by the Supreme Court judge overseeing the case for "trying to cause chaos and conflict."

De Freitas emerges as heir apparent

Tarcísio de Freitas, governor of São Paulo — Brazil's richest and most populous state — is viewed as the right's best hope for challenging Lula in the high-stakes October 2026 elections.

A former army engineer who served as infrastructure minister during Bolsonaro's presidency, De Freitas is popular with Brazil's business lobby.

"He is well trained, technical and speaks the language of Faria Lima," a chief executive of a large company told the FT, referring to Brazil's Wall Street equivalent. "He is unquestionably intelligent and pragmatic."

However, De Freitas will only run if Bolsonaro is prepared to swing behind him and abandon attempts to impose one of his sons as an alternative candidate, according to the newspaper.

The São Paulo governor has been the target of infighting within Brazil's rightwing movement, with Eduardo Bolsonaro attacking him as "the establishment candidate."

While De Freitas is viewed as a more moderate and less polarising figure than Bolsonaro, he is steadily rebranding himself as the most disciplined heir to the far-right firebrand's project — tough on crime, friendly to markets, and openly confrontational with the left and parts of the judiciary.

In recent months, he has embraced nearly all of Bolsonarismo's core themes – he often praises former economy minister Paulo Guedes, has accelerated privatisations and concessions in São Paulo, and sponsors civic-military schools.

On security, he goes furthest, citing El Salvador's Nayib Bukele as a model and defending introducing life imprisonment for serious crimes in Brazil, currently a constitutional taboo.

 On September 7, he stood on Avenida Paulista and called Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes a "dictator" and "tyrant" — language once reserved for Bolsonaro's most radical followers.

De Freitas now openly defends a broad amnesty for Bolsonaro and those convicted over the 8 January 2023 coup attempt, and has said that if elected president, his first act would be to pardon the former leader.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, once sceptical of Tarcísio, now hints at support, calling a vote for the governor essentially "an anti-Lula vote."

Electoral landscape

Yet even if De Freitas wins support from hardcore Bolsonaristas, who comprise approximately 20% of the electorate, he faces a tough battle for the presidency. Lula is a formidably experienced campaigner who has said he will run for a fourth term at age 80.

Brazil's economy is performing well, with strong growth in jobs and wages, whilst low reliance on US markets has shielded it from the worst effects of Trump's tariffs.

In one recent survey cited by The Rio Times, 41% of respondents said the best outcome for Brazil would be either a candidate unlinked to Lula or Bolsonaro, or someone from outside politics altogether, outpacing those who wanted Lula re-elected.

"Tarcísio is the only candidate the right has who could take on Lula," Thomas Traumann, a political analyst and former presidential spokesperson, told the FT. "Against all the others, Lula is the clear favourite."

A confidante of Bolsonaro also told the British outlet the former leader was likely to choose a successor before year-end, though observers have suggested he could secure Bolsonaro's endorsement by choosing Flávio as a running mate.