World Bank expects Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP growth to accelerate on strong domestic demand

By bne IntelliNews June 13, 2013

Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 4.4% in 2012 to 4.9% in 2013, 5.2% in 2014, and 5.4% in 2015, supported mainly by robust domestic demand and also by the anticipated strengthening of global demand, the World Bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report. Excluding the region’s largest and most developed economy, South Africa, GDP growth for the rest of the region is projected to speed up from 5.4% last year to 6.2% this and next year, and further strengthen to 6.4% in 2015. The World Bank noted that the strong growth will not be uniform, as countries facing political instability and serious labour unrests would underperform significantly.

Investments in the natural resources sector in the region are seen remaining an important growth driver. They will be increasingly supported by investment in other sectors, in particular the service sub-sectors such as finance and banking, telecommunication, transportation and retail trade in economies with a rising middle-class, relatively larger populations and political stability, like Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, and Tanzania. The overall foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to grow from USD 33.4bn in 2012 to USD 53.6bn in 2015, but countries with lingering political uncertainty (Madagascar, Central African Republic, Guinea, Guinea Bissau), persistent labour unrests (South Africa) and macroeconomic instability are seen benefiting less from the rising investment inflows.

Domestic demand is expected to continue being supported by low interest rate and inflation environment, while household incomes and consumption are seen rising thanks to a projected increase in remittance flows from USD 31bn in 2012 to USD 39bn in 2015.

The World Bank projects also a strengthening of Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports as a result of an increased capacity in mineral exports, a growth in global demand, particularly from the eurozone, the region’s largest trading partner, and a structural re-orientation of trade toward faster growing regions, mainly Asia, and rising intraregional trade. Annual exports growth is seen speeding from 1.3% last year to 6.6% in 2013, 7.9% in 2014 and 7.6% in 2015. However, the net exports contribution to growth is expected to remain negative due to strong demand for foreign capital goods to meet infrastructure and other investment needs, as well as consumer durables and imported oil.

GDP growth, %            2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Angola 3.4 3.4 8.1 7.2 7.5 7.8
Benin 3.0 3.1 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3
Botswana 7.0 8.1 6.1 5.0 5.1 5.2
Burkina Faso 7.9 4.2 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Burundi 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9
Cape Verde 5.2 5.0 4.3 4.0 5.0 5.4
Cameroon 2.9 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1
Central African Republic 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.0 3.5 3.7
Chad 13.0 3.1 6.5 4.0 3.0 3.0
Comoros 2.1 2.2 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.0
Congo, Dem. Rep. 7.2 6.9 6.6 8.2 6.4 7.5
Congo, Rep. 8.8 3.4 4.9 5.6 5.4 5.0
Cote d'Ivoire 2.4 -4.7 9.8 8.0 8.0 8.1
Equatorial Guinea -0.5 7.8 -2.1 6.6 3.6 3.4
Eritrea 2.2 8.7 7.5 6.0 3.5 3.0
Ethiopia 9.9 7.3 8.5 7.0 6.9 7.4
Gabon 6.6 7.0 6.1 5.5 5.1 4.8
Gambia, The 6.5 -4.3 -3.9 10.7 5.5 5.3
Ghana 8.0 14.4 8.1 7.8 7.4 7.3
Guinea 1.9 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.2 5.3
Guinea-Bissau 3.5 5.3 -1.5 5.0 4.6 5.1
Kenya 5.6 4.3 4.6 5.7 5.9 5.5
Lesotho 5.6 5.8 4.0 5.2 5.3 5.0
Madagascar 1.6 1.0 2.7 4.1 4.8 5.4
Malawi 6.5 4.3 1.9 4.4 4.8 5.5
Mali 5.8 2.7 -1.2 4.8 5.9 6.0
Mauritania 5.2 3.9 6.4 5.2 4.9 4.8
Mauritius 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.2
Mozambique 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.0 8.5 8.5
Namibia 6.0 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.9
Niger 8.0 2.3 11.2 6.2 6.1 5.0
Nigeria 8.0 7.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 7.0
Rwanda 7.2 8.3 8.0 7.0 7.5 7.2
Senegal 4.1 2.6 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.7
Seychelles 6.7 5.0 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.2
Sierra Leone 4.9 6.0 18.2 17.1 14.1 12.1
South Africa 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.3
Sudan 5.1 4.7 -1.0 1.0 3.0 2.5
Swaziland 2.0 1.3 -1.5 0.8 0.1 0.5
Tanzania, United Rep. 7.0 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.4
Togo 4.0 4.9 5.6 5.5 5.1 5.0
Uganda 5.9 6.7 3.4 4.8 6.2 7.0
Zambia 7.6 6.8 7.3 7.0 7.2 6.8
Zimbabwe 9.6 9.4 4.4 2.5 3.5 3.7
Source: World Bank            

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