UPDATED: Armenia’s opposition close to taking power after ruling party withdraws from prime minister race

UPDATED: Armenia’s opposition close to taking power after ruling party withdraws from prime minister race
Nikol Pashinian
By bne IntelliNews April 28, 2018

The chances of Armenia’s Velvet Revolution ending peacefully increased dramatically on April 28 after the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) said it will not nominate Acting Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan or any other candidate for the vacant post of prime minister ahead of a vote scheduled for an emergency session of parliament on May 1.

The decision was announced by Edward Sharmazanov, Vice President of the National Assembly, who said that the ruling party has taken this decision to “avoid confrontation and in the national interest of Armenia,” according to reports on social media.

Pashinian also met with the head of the HHK faction, Vahram Baghdasaryan, on April 29 and told journalists said that the ruling party “does not seem predisposed to obstruct the election of the people's candidate,” according to reports on social media. If the HHK sticks to its promise then the decision heads off a possible constitutional crisis that could easily lead to violence.

Speaking to a rally in Yerevan’s central Republic Square in the evening of April 29 Pashinian called for a halt to all civil disobedience actions for Monday April 29 to give him time to negotiate with the rest of parliament ahead of a vote to chose the interim prime minister on Tuesday May 1.

“For the last month I've been in the streets for 90% of the day. It is extremely necessary that I spend at least half a day in my office tomorrow. In the AM, I will meet with all the political factions at the National Assembly,” Pashinian told the crowd, as cited by EVN Report.

“In order to give you information by the end of the day & prove the election of your candidate to PM is guaranteed. I'm asking everyone - tomorrow, take a break. I wouldn't feel comfortable knowing you're doing acts of civil disobedience while I'm in talks,” he added.

The MP and de facto leader of the opposition Pashinian kept the pressure up on the govt over the weekend by touring regional cities and organising rallies which saw thousands of people turnout into the streets to cheer the unlikely leader of a rebellion that has swept the country.

The rallies are also a show of force by Pashinian, to underline to the incumbent politicians that he has full control of popular sentiment and could turn the demonstrators on the government officials if they do not acquiesce to his demands.

Parliament is due to hold an emergency session on May 1 to vote in an interim prime minister that could bring the immediate political crisis to an end.

A total of 53 votes are needed to appoint a new prime minister in a simple majority. The opposition controls a total of 47 seats, whereas HHK has 58 and could both block the opposition’s candidate and force through their own.

Pashinian’s own party Yelk has only nine seats and the other leading opposition party Prosperous Armenia (also know by the name of its founder and sponsor, businessman Gagik Tsarukyan) has 31. Another seven seats belong to the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) faction, which on April 26 said it was withdrawing form its coalition with HHK.

However, Pashinian has said that if the HHK fields a candidate or tries to “hang onto power” he will order the crowds to blockage the parliament building and put the decision on the new prime minister to the crowds on Republic Square, which is outside the constitution.

Ignoring the constitution could also provoke Russia to get involved. So far Russia has sat on the sidelines and said the political crisis in Armenia is “a domestic affair.” However, Russian President Vladimir Putin phoned his Armenian counterpart at the end of last week and said the crisis should be resolved “within the constitution.”

HHK now look increasingly likely to back Pashinian in the May 1 vote. The other challenge the former newspaper editor and political prisoner faces is from oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan who is the founder and head of the Prosperous Armenia party (also know simply as Tsarukyan), which has 31 seats in parliament.

However, after his party nominated him for the post of prime minister Tsarukyan has also withdrawn his name on April 29, which heads off the possibility that HHK could have thrown their weight behind Tsarukyan and effectively blocked Pashinian’s appointment to the job of interim prime minister. Tsarukyan has said he will vote for Pashinian who will now stand unopposed. Dashnaktsutyun has also said it will vote for Pashinian.

But there is still time for surprises. If HHK abstains from the vote on May 1 then no one will be elected leaving HHK Acting Prime Minister Karen Karepetyan in charge. The constitution say a second attempt to appoint a new prime minster must be held. If that also fails then fresh elections must be organised.

On Thursday April 26 the Armenian opposition said it had taken a strategic decision to launch a “second round of the revolution.”

"I’ve just rounded up a meeting with my allies and we took a strategic decision regarding a second round of the velvet revolution," Pashinian said. "The opposition movement should do everything in its power to enable the process to bring about a real change."

Highly coordinated demonstrations were organised in the capital Yerevan closing down key thoroughfares for several hours, in a show of strength that emphasis’s the opposition’s ability to bring the city a standstill.

In a separate development Pashinian went out of his way to emphasis that Russia has played no part in his Velvet Revolution and that should he take power Russia will remain “a key partner under any government.”

"Definitely," he said, answering a question on whether Russia will remain Armenia’s key partner. "I may guarantee that there will be no government in Armenia in the near future that will say anything different from that. We are not going to make any sharp geopolitical moves," Pashinyan added, reports Tass.

"This political process will help to develop and deepen Armenian-Russian relations more than ever before; we will improve our relations with the US, the EU, our two neighbors, Iran and Georgia. Armenia's international standing has doubled, tripled," Pashinian said seperately, reports EVN Report. 

Pashinian met with several members of Russia’s Duma on April 29 and reassured them that Armenia will remain a close ally and partner.

"I think our colleagues from the State Duma could see for themselves that there is no and has never been any conspiracy against Russia in the domestic political processes. The meeting was held in a constructive atmosphere, and we discussed the CSTO and EAEU [the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union]," Pashinian noted. He assured his Russian colleagues that after coming to power he "will not raise the issue of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU and the CSTO," he said, reports Tass.

The Russian Duma was represented by Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, European Integration and Relations with Compatriots Leonid Kalashnikov, MP Viktor Vodolatsky and chief of staff of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs Nikolai Krotov.

 

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