Ukrainian Statistics Service worsens estimate of GDP decline to 1.3% y/y in Q2.

By bne IntelliNews September 10, 2013

The State Statistics Service has worsened the estimate of GDP decline in Q2 from 1.1% to 1.3% y/y, reads a statement made by the statistics service. Adjusted for the seasonal factor, GDP shrank 0.5% q/q in Q2. Nominal GDP made UAH 351.896bn in Q2.

In Q1, GDP declined by 1.1% y/y. Ukraine's GDP growth in 2012 slowed to 0.2% from 5.2% in 2011. In Q1, the largest fall was seen in construction-down by 14.85% y/y, payment for financial intermediaries-13.8% y/y and processing industry-9.5% y/y decline. At the same time, agriculture, hunting and forestry posted strong 5.7% y/y growth, financial services advanced by 3.9% y/y and trade grew by 3.1% y/y.

Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has assessed the GDP growth at 2.5% in July. He also denied assumptions of some experts about possible default. He emphasized the government had been taking a range of measures to produce a balance of payment surplus, and would adopt policies to ensure financial and economic stability in Ukraine and the development of the economy.

The government expects GDP growth to reach 3-4% y/y in 2014. Cabinet plans to achieve such results by realizing priorities of social and economic development, put in the government's economic development promotion program for the years 2013-2014.

Standard & Poor's expects a GDP growth rate of 1% in Ukraine in 2013 under optimistic scenario. Under the pessimistic scenario, GDP growth in Ukraine in 2013 will be around 0.5%.

The EBRD forecasts GDP to decline by 0.5% y/y in 2013. The IMF forecasts zero GDP growth in Ukraine in 2013. Assuming unchanged politics, country’s GDP will remain unchanged compared to 2012-says the IMF. In 2014, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 2.8%.

In early April, the World Bank has worsened Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast from 3.5% y/y to 1% y/y in 2013. The World Bank also lowered its forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2014 from 4% to 3%. In 2015, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by 4%.

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