Ukrainian Statistics Service worsens estimate of GDP decline to 1.3% y/y in Q2.

By bne IntelliNews September 10, 2013

The State Statistics Service has worsened the estimate of GDP decline in Q2 from 1.1% to 1.3% y/y, reads a statement made by the statistics service. Adjusted for the seasonal factor, GDP shrank 0.5% q/q in Q2. Nominal GDP made UAH 351.896bn in Q2.

In Q1, GDP declined by 1.1% y/y. Ukraine's GDP growth in 2012 slowed to 0.2% from 5.2% in 2011. In Q1, the largest fall was seen in construction-down by 14.85% y/y, payment for financial intermediaries-13.8% y/y and processing industry-9.5% y/y decline. At the same time, agriculture, hunting and forestry posted strong 5.7% y/y growth, financial services advanced by 3.9% y/y and trade grew by 3.1% y/y.

Prime Minister Mykola Azarov has assessed the GDP growth at 2.5% in July. He also denied assumptions of some experts about possible default. He emphasized the government had been taking a range of measures to produce a balance of payment surplus, and would adopt policies to ensure financial and economic stability in Ukraine and the development of the economy.

The government expects GDP growth to reach 3-4% y/y in 2014. Cabinet plans to achieve such results by realizing priorities of social and economic development, put in the government's economic development promotion program for the years 2013-2014.

Standard & Poor's expects a GDP growth rate of 1% in Ukraine in 2013 under optimistic scenario. Under the pessimistic scenario, GDP growth in Ukraine in 2013 will be around 0.5%.

The EBRD forecasts GDP to decline by 0.5% y/y in 2013. The IMF forecasts zero GDP growth in Ukraine in 2013. Assuming unchanged politics, country’s GDP will remain unchanged compared to 2012-says the IMF. In 2014, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 2.8%.

In early April, the World Bank has worsened Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast from 3.5% y/y to 1% y/y in 2013. The World Bank also lowered its forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2014 from 4% to 3%. In 2015, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by 4%.

Related Articles

Poroshenko officially nominates Smolii for post of Ukraine central bank governor

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has nominated Yakiv Smolii, the acting head of National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), as a candidate for the post of governor to replace the outgoing governor ... more

Saakashvili sentenced in absentia by Georgian court to 3 years in jail

A Georgian court sentenced former president Mikheil Saakashvili in absentia to three years in prison on January 5 over his alleged involvement in the covering up of the murder of a Georgian banker in ... more

Southeast Europe targeted by $250bn environmental crime industry

The ancient forests and animal life of the Danube-Carpathian region of Central and Eastern Europe are increasingly victims of wildlife crime and illegal logging, says a new report from the United ... more